957
FXUS62 KILM 010708
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES TODAY THERE WON'T BE A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES DISCERNIBLE DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE VERSUS
YESTERDAY. THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND
SHOULD SIT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOCALLY. TODAY
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOP WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE BEACHES POSSIBLY REACHING 20 MPH DURING LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LAND WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
YESTERDAY'S OBSERVATIONS WITH UPPER 80S INLAND EXCEPT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE COAST WITH THE SEABREEZE. DESPITE THE
WARMTH, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION AND
POPS REMAIN ZERO PERCENT.
A 5-10 MPH SOUTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT
PERHAPS SOUTH OF FLORENCE WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ON THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
WEEKEND'S COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO HANG ON THE
DRIER SIDE FOR MOST. ONLY A FEW AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 HAVE A
SHOT AT CAPTURING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, WHERE THE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT EXISTS (NOT THAT THIS IS SAYING MUCH). HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S INLAND, UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY STARTS TO
DEEPEN MORE AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY.
THIS PUSHES THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE, PARTICULARLY BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE TO ABOUT WHERE
THEY WERE THE DAY BEFORE, IF NOT A DEGREE COOLER (SOME OF THIS
DEPENDS ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVES). LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 60S, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUING, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GUIDANCE STARTS TO GET MESSY AGAIN AT THIS POINT. SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY, BUT IT MAY NOT GET THERE, AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS NOT VERY ROBUST. LOOKS LIKE A CUTOFF LOW IS ON THE
WAY BY SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW IS UP IN THE AIR (COULD BE ALONG OR WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY). THIS MOVEMENT PLAYS A ROLE IN THE SURFACE
FRONT'S MOVEMENT, WHICH THEN AFFECTS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
AND TEMPERATURES. DIDN'T STRAY AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO
MUCH, KEEPING MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING AT THE
LATEST, REMAINING THERE THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, BUT THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION IS
AGAIN UP IN THE AIR. BEEN AWHILE SINCE I'VE SEEN LARGE DISCREPANCIES
LIKE THIS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GENERALLY WENT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN STORE
AFTER THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AFFECTING KFLO AND KLBT.
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO A MODERATE PROBABILITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...TODAY'S WEATHER SHOULDN'T BE APPRECIABLY
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN
THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA PROVIDING A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SYNOPTIC WIND ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY'S SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN
BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS BETWEEN 3PM AND 9PM, FED BY AN OFFSHORE-TO-INLAND
AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 15-18 DEGREE F RANGE. A
SOUTHEAST 8 SECOND SWELL AVERAGING 2 FEET WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED
BY WIND WAVES CREATING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 3 FT, ROUGHEST ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEABREEZE
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SSW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS HANG IN THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AT 2-3 FT STEADILY PICK UP TO 3-4 FT BY SATURDAY, WITH EVEN
SOME 5 FT WAVES POSSIBLE 20 NM OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT, CREATING A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION BY MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE FINALLY SETTLING ON ESE AT
10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SLOWLY COME BACK DOWN TO 2-3
FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/IGB
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