847
FXUS62 KILM 020151
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.
UPDATE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED TONIGHT WITH MODEST
NOCTURNAL JET. THIS WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY FOR THE BULK OF THE
AREA, OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MIXING WILL ALSO HELP
KEEPS LOWS MORE UNIFORM WITH ALL AREAS RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WILL THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN ESSENTIALLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. FOR FRIDAY A VERY SUBTLE CHANGE OCCURS WITH ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INLAND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON THE
MINIMAL POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SLOW COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BREAK AWAY
FROM THE SURFACE FRONT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT HOLDS BACK. THERE WILL BE SOME
INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND ~30 KT SHEAR PRIMARILY INLAND. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AS WE'LL NOW BE DEALING
WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT APPROACHING THE AREA. PERIODIC INSTANCES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE AROUND THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES
THROUGH TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR LARGER COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF 1.5-2" PWATS MOVES
OVERHEAD. THIS MAY BE NEARLY OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY PEAK HEATING THOUGH,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINING OFFSHORE. IF
THIS SLOWS, WE'LL GET BETTER RAINFALL OVER LAND. SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION LOOKS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS. HIGHS LARGELY IN
THE 80S DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S DIPPING INTO THE 50S
POSSIBLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY, OTHER THEN POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND MAYBE A BIT OF ISOLATED FOG
COMING OFF NEARBY WATER WAYS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AT INLAND TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST ARE ABLE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES UNTIL THEY REACH FLO/LBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, INCREASING TO A MODERATE PROBABILITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...
PERSISTENCE PATTERN/FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FEATURING THE BERMUDA RIDGE
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
S FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY TO ~15
KTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA, WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE N. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 3-5 FT BY SUNDAY AND LINGER AROUND 3-4 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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