967
FXUS62 KILM 021715
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
115 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES TO POP AS MODELS FOCUS ON AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
THE ROUTINE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IN GENERAL, EXPECT FAIR BUT WARM WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-95 FROM
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW ATTM. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S WITH COOLER NUMBERS NEARER THE OCEAN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DEEP 500 MB CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL BOTH ADVECT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE PERIOD WHERE THESE MOISTURE STREAMS BEST ALIGN
WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE
I'VE PLACED MY HIGHEST FORECAST POPS: 70-80 PERCENT. THE 12-HR
WINDOW FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY HAS QPF RANGING FROM ONE-THIRD OF
AN INCH INLAND TO ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPE
FEAR COAST.
BEHIND THIS CONCENTRATED PULSE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MOISTURE MAY DISAPPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP DRY SLOT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MEANS
I'LL HAVE TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW MEANS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WITH HUMID SOUTH WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PLUS RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE
OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT DANGLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL GROW WEAKER
WITH TIME, PERHAPS DRIFTING JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
GETTING BOOTED BACK ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION OVERWHELMS THE FRONT'S MEAGER MOMENTUM. WHAT'S LEFT
OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, ACTING
AS A SURFACE TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET FEEDS NUMEROUS WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES VARY
SO MUCH AMONG THE 00Z GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF THAT DAY-TO-DAY
TIMING ISN'T POSSIBLE, BUT 20 POPS ON TUESDAY INCREASING TO
30-40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SEEMS REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS 60-65.
THIS CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT WARMTH RECORDED IN APRIL WHERE
LOCAL STATIONS RAN 2.5 TO 4.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING FOR INLAND TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS COULD DIP TO IFR
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWERS ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. NO FOG OR STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH. AS A FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STEADY SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
SEABREEZE WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS NEARSHORE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CREATE SEAS AS LARGE AS 4-5 FEET,
PEAKING IN HEIGHT SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SEABREEZE MAY NOT BE AS BIG A CONCERN ON SUNDAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE
COAST AND STALLS. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REDUCE THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN IF THE FRONT
DOESN'T CLEANLY PUSH OFF THE COAST. THIS IS IMPLIED BY FORECAST
WIND DIRECTIONS WHICH NEVER VEER MORE THAN BRIEFLY WESTERLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/31
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