238
FXUS62 KILM 022335
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HI-
RES MODELS SHOW A THETA-E GRADIENT (LIKELY WHAT'S LEFT OF A SEA
BREEZE) MOVING INLAND WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SINCE MIXING IS UP TO THE LFC
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS COULD OVER PERFORM
INITIALLY AT PEAK HEATING BEFORE A GRADUAL DECLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE WE
EXPECT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S INLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST WITH AN
UNORGANIZED SEA BREEZE BLASTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE CENTRAL US AND PUSHES EASTWARD, LED BY A COLD FRONT. AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION, MOISTURE WILL ALIGN
WITH THE AVAILABLE LIFT AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE,
PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE ISOLATED, MAINTAINED A 10-15%
POP NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP
CUTOFF LOW SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY, LINGERING THERE
INTO MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINES
WITH PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. CURRENT QPF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS AROUND 0.25-0.75". MAY BE A BRIEF LULL EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-95 WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR INLAND. ELEVATED SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STACKED CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO MIDWEEK AS A
SECOND LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS THE WEAK PARENT LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST,
BUT WHETHER THE FRONT STALLS OVER LAND, JUST OFFSHORE, AND
COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS UNCLEAR. SEMI-CONFIDENT IN DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (POPCORN CONVECTION) MONDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION. TUESDAY CURRENTLY
HAS THE LOWEST POPS OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY - HAVE INCREASED POPS USING NBM BUT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDE RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO POPS, UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS WELL, PARTICULARLY LOW
TEMPS INLAND AS THE FORECAST COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES
TOO WARM IF FRONT STALLS FURTHER OFFSHORE. ALL IN ALL, NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE FOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL JET/MIXING KEEPING ANY FOG AT
BAY AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS.
ISOLATED CELL THAT MOVED ACROSS LBT AROUND 23Z WILL BE NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINAL BY THE START OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE DECREASING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-12 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-
MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS INCREASE AND GUSTS RETURN.
STORMS STAY TO THE WEST FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY BUT LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA,
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED SHRA OR TSRA IN ANY OF THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY, BUT
COULD SEE A NEED FOR PROB30 FOR BOTH FLO/LBT AFTER 22Z
SATURDAY CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER IS LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH. AS A FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE COAST HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY ABATE
THIS EVENING AS THE CIRCULATION COLLAPSES. A TIGHTENING SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL US. WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KNOTS AND A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEA STATE AROUND 3-4
FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY PUSH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-5
FT. WINDS AND SEAS RELAX SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEARBY MONDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IT
STALL (INLAND VERSUS OFF THE COAST). AT THE MOMENT, FORECAST HAS
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
2-3 FT SEAS, BUT THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE BASED ON FRONT POSITION
(NAMELY WIND DIRECTION). BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO PRESENT LATE SUNDAY WITH INITIAL FRONT
APPROACH, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG STALLED
FRONT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...VAO/21
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