846
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE AT H5 WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WESTERN AREAS AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT ALL AREAS.
EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DIMINISH SOME WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT SOME SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID
80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
*SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED, MAINLY SUN
*VERY LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SUN AFTN/EARLY EVE
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH SUN
*MODERATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
DETAILS: AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA CAUSING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY TO STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/FORCING SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, AND EVEN A VERY LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND SUN AS THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THESE COULD SPARK MORE SHOWERS/STORMS,
ESPECIALLY MON DURING PEAK HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY
STAY ABOUT A HALF INCH OR LESS, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS MORE
LIKELY NEAR THE NC COAST. TEMPS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*STALLED FRONT JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES A BIT UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER TUE
*TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
*NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE/FLOOD RISK
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH TUE/TUE NIGHT
*MODERATE WED THRU FRI
DETAILS: A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STALLING JUST OFFSHORE MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER FROM THE AREA
MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER TROUGH/POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY REPLACE
IT. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT TIMING THEM IS
DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THUS, WE THINK AFTER A GENERALLY DRY
START TO THE MID WEEK PERIOD UNCERTAINTY WILL INCREASE REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES AND SO WE LIMITED THEM TO NO MORE THAN 40% FOR NOW.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD
BEFORE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES INLAND IN THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME WITH SUCH POTENTIAL WAITING TIL 00-03Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
FROM THOSE TIME WINDOWS ONWARD, EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ON A
TEMPO BASIS AT MINIMUM. LIGHT S WINDS PRESENTLY WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH. AS A FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE INVOF FRYING PAN SHOALS CLOSER
TO 20 NM OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH SUNDAY BUT THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN, MAINLY JUST FOR 6 FT SEAS, BUT OTHERWISE NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOUT 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107>110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/31
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