758
FXUS62 KILM 031922
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, LEADING TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BROAD AND DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
BASICALLY ALL OF SUNDAY. THIS FLOW IS EMANATING FROM THE
VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WOBBLING AROUND
KENTUCKY. THE FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA IS INCREASING IN MOISTURE BUT
STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. GUIDANCE AND THIS FORECAST FOR THAT
MATTER IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GOOD LINE AND OR AREA OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL
TENNESSEE AND COMBINING WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OFFSHORE. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASICALLY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU APPLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY ALONG
THE COAST. FOR SUNDAY EXPECT A LENGTHY LULL IN CONVECTION MOST
OF THE MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OR AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DEEP CUTOFF LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE ARE EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES
ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY, PVA AROUND BASE OF CUTOFF LOW AND
ENOUGH PWAT WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A FOCUS OVER THE CAPE FEAR
REGION WHERE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS WEAKER LEADING TO ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE,
PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA, AND SOME NVA AS THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY
DRY DAY IN THE FORECAST WITH NO POPS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, A SECOND LOW WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. GUIDANCE HAS THIS SECOND LOW ALSO STALLING DURING
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THIS TIME OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW,
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND STALLED SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK, PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER OFFSHORE, WITH OVERRUNNING KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH (AT LEAST) SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AVIATION FORECAST REFLECTS THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW HOURS INLAND AND
MORE LIMITED AT THE COAST...IE PROB 30S INLAND. FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A MORE ORGANIZED LINE/AREA OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND OR MERGE WITH THE INLAND ACTIVITY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND WARRANTS
PREVAILING TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED EARLY TO MID MORNING SUNDAY AGAIN WEST TO EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH. AS A FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 PERHAPS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A DISTORTION OF WINDS BRIEFLY DUE TO
CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SEE AN
INCREASE FROM 2- 4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SIX FOOTERS EXTREME OUTER WATERS BUT
THE 3-5 FEET RANGE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE THUS NO HEADLINE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH, AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS, FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, OCCASIONALLY TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS A FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE COAST STARTING MONDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LOWER TO 2-3 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING AROUND 2 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY, COMBINATION OF ESE SWELL AND S WIND WAVE.
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT (AS FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS), AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107>110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/VAO
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