753
FXUS62 KILM 261735
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY
UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DRAGS IT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPDATE
WILL BE RAISING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES
OF SE NC AND NE SC, AS WELL AS DOWNTOWN ILM, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE ALONG THE BEACHES WILL OCCUR
AROUND 7-8 PM TONIGHT, AND DOWNTOWN...AROUND 10 PM. WATER LEVELS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE.
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT GUIDANCE
SHOWS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED. REMNANT CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW CROSSING WEST-CENTRAL SC THIS MORNING
WILL APPROACH THE PEE DEE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND HAVE TWEAKED
POPS UP ACROSS THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON. MAY TWEAK
FURTHER AS THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*UNSETTLED AT TIMES DUE TO LINGERING FRONT
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*HIGH REGARDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
*LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING TEMPS AND RAIN PROBS/TIMING
DETAILS: A RATHER STATIONARY FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES THOUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE, LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID-
LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE AREA. MAINLY LOW LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AND NEAR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SC LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND/OR A WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS OVER LAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OR LESS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-2+" CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
SC. THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THEIR EXACT VALUES AS MUCH
DEPENDS ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP. THE COOLEST TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN NC WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING LOWER TO MID 70S MOST SPOTS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON/WHITEVILLE/FLORENCE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HAVE CONTINUED LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CAD FROM
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. DUE TO THE LOWER
TEMPERATURES, HAVE ALSO DECREASED MENTIONS OF THUNDER OUTSIDE OF
PEAK HEATING HOURS, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR FAR INLAND AREAS.
MEANWHILE, THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL
IT'S DRAGGED NORTH BY PASSING LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
BE 1.5-2" THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, BUT
THE LOW INSTABILITY TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE WEATHER AT BAY.
WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL PUSH THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT
AGAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. FOR NOW BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AND NE SC WHERE WE'LL SEE MORE WARMING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM BUILDS
TO OUR WEST, THE STALLED FRONT STILL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN TERMS OF "COLD" AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
LARGELY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
START TO MOVE IN SATURDAY ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE, BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TO WHERE WE COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS. THE END OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT
FURTHER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH TIGHTENS UP. A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY AFTER
12-18Z TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY AROUND TIMING REMAINS HIGH. BEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. A
LINGERING FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE STRENGTHENING WINDS
OCCUR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS UP TO NEAR 6 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND THUS WE HAVE
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE PENDER/NEW HANOVER COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY BEFORE BEING DRAGGED NORTH ALONG THE COAST BY LOW
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THIS REASON, IT
WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS DURING
THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SW FLOW BUILDING
AROUND 10=15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB/CRM
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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