422
FXUS62 KILM 261939
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH WAS LAYING FROM
OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE SC COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THICKEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY, WHERE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ALONG WITH SOME OVERRUNNING HAS KEPT SKIES OVERCAST.
AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF INSOLATION, TEMPS THERE HAVE HELD IN
THE LOW/MID 60S, AND THEY LIKELY WON'T MOVE MUCH HIGHER. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA, WHICH HAS SEEN OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. DESPITE THIS
EXTRA HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND SHOWERS TODAY
HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VERY SPOTTY. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE OVERNIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP. INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO AN EXPANSION OF STRATIFORM RAIN
INLAND, WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED TO OUR
SOUTH. AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE A SERIOUS QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST (BEST CHANCE NEAR THE COAST).
A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LIMITED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR,
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED AS WE TRADE CLOUDS ATOP A HUMID AIR
MASS WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH TIGHTENS UP. A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12-18Z TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY AROUND TIMING REMAINS HIGH. BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH LIES JUST BEYOND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND DRAWS IT INLAND. A
TIGHT GRADIENT WILL YIELD SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT, WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY. 6 FT SEAS WILL PUSH INTO THE UNSHELTERED WATERS OF AMZ252
(MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM), SO WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE
WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET AND CAPE FEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WESTERLY WINDS
BUILD BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS
RETURNING THEREAFTER. WIND WAVES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, UP TO 3-5 FEET, ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL BE AROUND
2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...21/CRM
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