718
FXUS62 KILM 270149
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
949 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPDATE
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST HAS RESULTED
IN A BIT OF A NORTHEAST SURGE BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ACROSS NC WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS. CURRENT SPEEDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SCA THRESHOLD WINDS NORTH
AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. NO PLANS TO EXPAND THE CURRENT NC ONLY
SCA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. IF SPEEDS ACROSS THE
SC WATERS EXCEED 25 KT IT WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW, 1 OR 2
HOURS.
TWEAKED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH NC A LITTLE
DRIER THAN EXPECTED AND CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL SC
STARTING TO WEAKEN. ACTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT,
ALREADY SEEING SOME HINTS OF THIS WELL EAST OF THE NORTHERN SC
COAST, AS WEAK WAVE STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE CAMS ARE ZEROING ON CAPE FEAR AS THE HOT SPOT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WAVE DEVELOPS THEN LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
CANCELLED TO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES A
LITTLE EARLY. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY 1-1.5' BELOW FLOOD
THRESHOLDS AS OF 930PM EDT. ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH WAS LAYING FROM
OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE SC COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THICKEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY, WHERE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ALONG WITH SOME OVERRUNNING HAS KEPT SKIES OVERCAST.
AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF INSOLATION, TEMPS THERE HAVE HELD IN
THE LOW/MID 60S, AND THEY LIKELY WON'T MOVE MUCH HIGHER. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA, WHICH HAS SEEN OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. DESPITE THIS
EXTRA HEATING, INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND SHOWERS TODAY
HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VERY SPOTTY. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE OVERNIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP. INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO AN EXPANSION OF STRATIFORM RAIN
INLAND, WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED TO OUR
SOUTH. AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE A SERIOUS QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST (BEST CHANCE NEAR THE COAST).
A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LIMITED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR,
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED AS WE TRADE CLOUDS ATOP A HUMID AIR
MASS WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES FROM PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STORMS IS LOW,
BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOB 2K FT THROUGH 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. BEST CHANCES
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT AND SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH LIES JUST BEYOND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND DRAWS IT INLAND. A
TIGHT GRADIENT WILL YIELD SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT, WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY. 6 FT SEAS WILL PUSH INTO THE UNSHELTERED WATERS OF AMZ252
(MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM), SO WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE
WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET AND CAPE FEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WESTERLY WINDS
BUILD BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS
RETURNING THEREAFTER. WIND WAVES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, UP TO 3-5 FEET, ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL BE AROUND
2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE COASTAL PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES ON TUESDAY,
MAY 27. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX
AND FLOAT. DON'T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...III
MARINE...21/CRM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IGB
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