285
FXUS62 KILM 271046
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY, WITH SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT PERIODIC UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*UNSETTLED AT TIMES DUE TO FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
*EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL NC
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY DECREASING A BIT
LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SC. UNSEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT, SOME
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALL COMBINE TO YIELD
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD TALLY AROUND AN INCH MOST LOCALES THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE ARE EVEN HIGH-END AMOUNTS OF 10"+,
MAINLY IN BRUNSWICK CO AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER CO, AND THUS WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS TO COVER THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT NORTH
OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON PRECIP TRENDS LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE NEAR 70 NORTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AND EAST,
WARMEST TOWARD THE SC LOWCOUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS
THEY COULD RISE A BIT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO OUR NE AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LAG INLAND SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF
OUR AREA, SO HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
AREA IS IN A 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW DRIVEN
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION AS THERE ISN'T MUCH SHEAR. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE COLUMN FROM AROUND THE
BACK OF THE LOW WHICH, PAIRED WITH SUBSIDENCE, SHOULD PREVENT
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AS THEY'LL BE ON THE
SHALLOWER SIDE. PWATS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, REACHING 1.5-2" WHICH COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. INCREASED WAA WILL ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AROUND
WHETHER IT WILL CLEAR US FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, AS IT MAY RETREAT
SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT SHOULD BE FIRMLY OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY, WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY END OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD OF COLDER
CONDITIONS, WE'LL ACTUALLY SEE DECENT WARMING UNDER NEAR FULL SUN,
WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NEARING 90. SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS COULD
POP UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC THROUGH 12Z/28 DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PROBS OF LIFR CIGS AS WELL, MAINLY
INLAND, ALTHOUGH COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE WITH HEAVY RAIN. REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT TIMES AS WELL, MOSTLY FROM PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN TIMING/SEVERITY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. BEST CHANCES
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT AND SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
BRINGING VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WE EXTENDED THE ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NC WATERS A BIT LONGER INTO THIS
EVENING DUE TO WINDS/SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING NE AND THEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE W TO SW ~10 KTS, INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT WITH AN INCREASE
IN WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE COASTAL PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT,
RELAX AND FLOAT. DON'T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM
IN A DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE,
FACE THE SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ107>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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