612
FXUS62 KILM 280447
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1247 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH DID
UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF
3 PM, BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD. AS FOR RAINFALL THIS EVENING, HREF MEMBERS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST OFF OF
OUR COAST. THESE MEMBERS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN IN CONVECTION WHERE NO INSTABILITY EXISTS ACCORDING
TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS, SO THEIR INITIALIZATION HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRODUCED QUESTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS HAS LED
TO UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE HEAVY RAIN, IF ANY, WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND GENERAL TREND IN A LOWER QPF
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING, I HAVE ENDED THE FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC COAST THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD
BE BRIEF. ILM IS CURRENTLY AT A 5.2 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT SINCE
JANUARY 1ST. RECENT WARMING HAS PUSHED SOIL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S. THIS MEANS THAT SOILS SHOULD HANDLE ANY
RAINFALL QUITE WELL. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY (AS
OBSERVED OVER STORMS WITHIN THE GULF STREAM WATERS EARLIER
TODAY) ARE UNLIKELY TO GENERATE A SUFFICIENT RAINFALL RATE FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
(DUE TO AN UNSEASONABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION) IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND TRAILING LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MID MORNING AS DRY AIR TRICKLES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED EAST OF I-95
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUD COVER FINALLY DEPARTING
EARLIER IN THE DAY, WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERATE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH EASTERN SC. UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOWS AND ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SC. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW FOR NOW, HOPEFULLY
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE TONIGHT'S FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LOCALLY AS DRY
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS THURSDAY, BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH WARMING TO BRING US BACK
TO NEAR- NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR NE SC, AS DEEP MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY DUE TO
ELEVATED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST, DURING
THE DAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVERAGE EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE
SCATTERED SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY, AS LINGERING OVERCAST
SKIES COULD BUST THE INSTABILITY FORECAST.
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE FRIDAY, WITH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL WARM A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE VFR
CIGS LIKELY RETURN, LIKELY STARTING NEAR THE COAST (KILM/KCRE/KMYR)
AND THEN INLAND (KLBT/KFLO). SOME HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
IMPACT THE TERMS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST, WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DURING THE DAY ONCE THE LOW MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PATTERN RETURNS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN STORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS IS LOW. VFR
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER, AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. AGGRAVATED 4-6 FOOT
SEAS FOR NC WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS
THE SCA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN DEVELOPS LOCALLY. SEAS 2-3 FT, PRIMARILY DUE TO
PERSISTING E SWELL. SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SSW FRESH SWELL BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS OUT OF THE W/WSW
FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE FRIDAY, WITH
LOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...VAO/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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