221
FXUS62 KILM 281347
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE AS A RESULT. UPDATED POPS FOR THE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MODELS INGEST THE COOLER
MORNING TEMPS AND THE EARLY DELAY IN HEATING. OTHER CHANCES WERE
MINOR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE, WITH A VERY LOW RISK
OF A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
*PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
*NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AWAY
FROM SE NC AND NE SC THIS MORNING BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AS WE RETURN TO MORE OF A
NORMAL LATE SPRING PATTERN. INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND FORCING APPEAR
MINIMAL BUT THERE IS DECENT DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE) SO IF ANY
UPDRAFTS COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH THERE COULD BE A DAMAGING WIND
GUST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FRIDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALOFT, INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE PM HOURS AS MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING AWAY FROM THE
COAST AFTER SUNSET. PWATS WILL BE +1.5" WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON CELLS, BUT OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL SHOULD LARGELY BE LIGHTER.
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS, A WAVE OF 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR SURGING AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND PEAK HEATING HOURS. MLCAPE COULD REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WITH NAM MUCAPE SHOWING +2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL,
PARTICULARLY FOR OUR INLAND COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STRONGER
CELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN END.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE GET CLOSE TO FULL SUN EVERY
DAY.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO AT LEAST
MID DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. VFR CIGS
SHOULD RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY STARTING NEAR THE COAST
(KILM/KCRE/KMYR) AND THEN INLAND (KLBT/KFLO). SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN STORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS IS LOW. VFR
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MORE OF A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS
WILL PEAK THIS MORNING, UP TO 5 FT OFF CAPE FEAR, THEN FALL TO 2-3
FT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE SW ~10 KTS, INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY TO 15-20 KTS. FOR NOW, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY, BUT GUSTS ~25 KT AND SEAS NEARING 6
FT MAY CONSTITUTE AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MORE
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND ~10 KTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WEDNESDAY DUE TO A 4-5 FT 7 TO 8 SEC
E SWELL. LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW MORE RIP
CURRENTS TO FORM IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER LONGSHORE CURRENT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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