606
FXUS62 KILM 290050
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
850 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE FORECASTED FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY
THE LAST 30 MIN, BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN PART TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS QUICKLY WANING
AT THIS POINT, EVIDENT BY THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION SEEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME DEBRIS CLOUD MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
KICKS OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS NO REAL
MECHANISM FOR THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. NO LARGE
CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR EVENING UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN A WARMER AIR
MASS. INSTABILITY IS WEAK, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NC WHERE SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS; MID AND UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME COMPLICATION DUE TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. THIS IS NOT THE BEST SETUP FOR FOG, BUT THE SURFACE
LAYER IS COMPLETELY SATURATED, SO PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT A MINIMUM.
CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BREAK UP ENOUGH TO GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION SUSTAINED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
DESPITE SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR LOW, BUT AS WITH ANY AFTERNOON BEYOND MEMORIAL
DAY, A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP STORMS CELLULAR WITH VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR STORMS TO
BECOME CONCERNINGLY ORGANIZED.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND A VERY
SATURATED PROFILE. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THESE SHOULD BREAK UP BY MIDDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING IS THE WINDOW OF CONCERN
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONCE SUNSHINE GETS UNDERWAY, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION, WIND PROFILES WILL BE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE DAY AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST - THIS INCLUDES BOTH DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IF THEY CAN TAP INTO THE DEEP SHEAR. THE
MAIN CONCERN MIGHT BE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS FORECASTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR OUTLOOK.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH COOL, DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. LOW TEMPS AROUND 60F BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR IN PLACE IT'LL HAVE NO IMPACT
HERE. DEEP MIXING WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25+ MPH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ON MONDAY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL START TO SEE A SLOW WARMING
TREND FOR END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FOR NOW WITH NO SIGN OF ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT).
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING
WITH IFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE
CONDITIONS BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOP. ALONG THE COAST
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VISIBILITY
UNDER 1SM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN 12Z-14Z THU WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY BRINGING
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR TO THE TERMINALS IN THE 18Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN STORMS EACH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND WAVES
RECOVERING FROM 3-4 FEET EARLY TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY DAYBREAK.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BE A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS PEAK FRIDAY
EVENING, AROUND 20-25 KT AND 4-5 FT, WHICH AT THE MOMENT REMAINS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR POSSIBLE SCA. COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, AND WITH IT
WILL BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS TURN WESTERLY WHILE REMAINING 15-20 KTS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 2 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...VAO/21
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