754
FXUS62 KILM 290502
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING
SOME SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
SE NC WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN SC. MAIN CONCERN THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN SC,
AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE AWAY SETTING UP BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE, A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES.
ALSO UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN A WARMER AIR
MASS. INSTABILITY IS WEAK, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NC WHERE SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS; MID AND UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME COMPLICATION DUE TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. THIS IS NOT THE BEST SETUP FOR FOG, BUT THE SURFACE
LAYER IS COMPLETELY SATURATED, SO PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT A MINIMUM.
CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BREAK UP ENOUGH TO GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION SUSTAINED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
DESPITE SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR LOW, BUT AS WITH ANY AFTERNOON BEYOND MEMORIAL
DAY, A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP STORMS CELLULAR WITH VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR STORMS TO
BECOME CONCERNINGLY ORGANIZED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND A VERY
SATURATED PROFILE. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THESE SHOULD BREAK UP BY MIDDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING IS THE WINDOW OF CONCERN
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONCE SUNSHINE GETS UNDERWAY, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION, WIND PROFILES WILL BE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE DAY AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST - THIS INCLUDES BOTH DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IF THEY CAN TAP INTO THE DEEP SHEAR. THE
MAIN CONCERN MIGHT BE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS FORECASTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR OUTLOOK.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH COOL, DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. LOW TEMPS AROUND 60F BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR IN PLACE IT'LL HAVE NO IMPACT
HERE. DEEP MIXING WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25+ MPH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ON MONDAY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL START TO SEE A SLOW WARMING
TREND FOR END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THIS AM AND MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG
THIS AM WITH POSSIBLE LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS IN SC WHICH IS SOUTH OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING FIRST LEADING TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN STORMS EACH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND WAVES
RECOVERING FROM 3-4 FEET EARLY TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY DAYBREAK.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BE A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS PEAK FRIDAY
EVENING, AROUND 20-25 KT AND 4-5 FT, WHICH AT THE MOMENT REMAINS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR POSSIBLE SCA. COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, AND WITH IT
WILL BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS TURN WESTERLY WHILE REMAINING 15-20 KTS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 2 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...VAO/21
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