755
FXUS62 KILM 291737
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY WHILE A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY LATE ON FRIDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT,
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM-UP TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS WITH THE MID-MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ON TRACK TO DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 1-3PM AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5 THREAT LEVEL) REMAINS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF CWA (INCLUDES
GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES, AND THE MYRTLE BEACH
AREA), WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL, WITH MAIN WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND/OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN SC
*PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY IN SC
*NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY IN SC, ALTHOUGH THE LIKELY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ITS COVERAGE. THUS, NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN AND AROUND WILLIAMSBURG
CO. OTHERWISE, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SE NC THIS AM WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS
WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE RANGE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE WEATHER BUT A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN SC. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER ACTIVITY ATTENDANT TO AN EARLY-MORNING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION BY MID-MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY BY NOON IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY. DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS (DEW POINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S) SHOULD YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE) AMIDST 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH AT A
FAVORABLE TIME TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE, CROSSING THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST (I-95 CORRIDOR
AROUND EVENING RUSH HOUR AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 2-3 HRS
LATER). THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A "SLIGHT"
RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS, ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SUPERCELL WHICH
MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY POP-UP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY, POTENTIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE SQUALL LINE
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR, LOWER
DEW POINTS, AND DECREASING CLOUDS, ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. DUE TO THE DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AND DOWNSLOPING MID-LEVEL FLOW, PRECIP
CHANCES ARE LOW, DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MAINLY NC AREAS FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS AS SOME
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 700-850MB MAY
SURVIVE AS THEY PIVOT DOWN FROM THE PIEDMONT.
THE LATTER SHORTWAVE WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ASSUMING ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF IT.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY
IN THEIR OUTCOMES FOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHORTWAVE DIGS, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY IN THEIR PRECIP TOTALS/COVERAGE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE WAVE, LEADING TO LITTLE OR NO PRECIP, WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE WAVE, LEADING TO MORE PRECIP. SO, THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR CHANGES WHICH MAY REQUIRE A RISE IN POPS IN FUTURE
UPDATES. OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING UP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COLUMNS PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN PASSING HIGH CIRRUS AND FLAT FAIR-WEATHER
CUMULUS AT THE WORST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS FROM DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUD DECK IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION, VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SC WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE PREVAILING TSRA AT MOST TERMINALS (TEMPO AT
KILM) WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS WITHIN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, DUE TO
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS BETWEEN STORMS.
SOME STORMS MAY BRING STRONG WINDS TO TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW- END MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWER CIGS
INLAND, AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC IFR/MVFR IN STORMS LATE FRIDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS SE NC WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH TODAY. THE LACK OF ANY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WHILE
SEAS ALSO REMAIN LOW (3 FT OR LESS) DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SWELLS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, PEAKING
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEHIND WHICH WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BARELY SCRAPE SCA CRITERIA AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS HOLDING IN THE
4-5 FT RANGE AT THE HIGHEST. THUS, WHILE AN SCA REMAINS
POSSIBLE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE LIKELY THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INDICATED. A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS OVER
34 KTS QUITE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 1-2
FT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND WAVES WILL BE A PRIMARY
DRIVER OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM OVERALL, ALTHOUGH EASTERLY 1-2 FT
SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC WILL BE NOTICEABLE ON FRIDAY
BEFORE FALLING TO 1 FT OR LESS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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