625
FXUS62 KILM 292334
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THEN, WITH A LINE
OF STORMS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S
COLD FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS COASTAL SC, IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH ~2000 J/KG CAPE AND PWATS NEAR 2", WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CWA, WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAIN HAZARDS, AS
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF OVER 30 KTS ACROSS
THE CWA. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS TRAINING IS
LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE NE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE SW.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SC THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH WITH
LESS INTENSITY THAN DURING THE DAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER.
AS THE RAIN COMES TO AN END OVERNIGHT (OUTSIDE OF LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS), LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THICKEST AND LOWEST CLOUDS INLAND. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S, KEEPING LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO BREAKUP FRIDAY MORNING, AND MAY TAKE
UNTIL MIDDAY TO GET SOME SUNSHINE AND OUT TEMPS BACK INTO MID
80S. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IF STRATUS BREAKS UP SOONER THAN EXPECTED,
BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY FRIDAY REMAINS A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. POTENTIAL TIME FRAME FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA IS 4-10PM, BUT THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED. WITH DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING, WIND FIELDS WILL GET STRONGER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STRONG WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE. ISOLATED TORNADO AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND A BIT.
COOL, DRY AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING (LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOME AREAS EACH DAY. WITH LIMITED DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE, WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN 20% POPS AS HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER FORECASTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD IS
WEAK/DISORGANIZED. MAY SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THEREAFTER LATE
IN THE WEEK BUT THIS IS STILL A FULL WEEK OUT AND DEPENDS A LOT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH
IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEK, UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES MOST INLAND AREAS BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA ATTM DESPITE ONGOING
RAIN/ISO TS. GENERALLY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO END
INVOF MIDNIGHT AND WITH IFR/LOW-END MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTERWARD, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP
INLAND TERMINALS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THEY COULD REACH COASTAL
TERMINALS NEAR THE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT AFT 00Z IS
MORE PROBABLE FOR THE COAST ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC IFR/MVFR IN STORMS LATE FRIDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT TONIGHT STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT AND 4-5
FT (6 FT OUTER COASTAL NC WATERS) BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS SOMETIME FRIDAY
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE
BORDERLINE SCA - HOLDING OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BRIEF TIME WINDOW. WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST,
REMAINING AROUND 20 KTS, WITH SEAS SLOWLY IMPROVING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS
UP TO 15-20 KT CONTINUE SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY NIGHT COLD
FROPA, BUT THEN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
NO HIGHER THAN ~10 KT WITH A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. SIMILAR DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS AS WELL...2-4 FT SATURDAY
BECOMING 1-2 FT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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