217
FXUS62 KILM 301926 CCA
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP TAKES
PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, NOW JUST A
DIMINISHING AREA OF STRATOCU WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TO
HEAT THINGS UP AND HELP WITH INSTABILITY. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE
TIMING STILL REMAINS THE SAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS. ANY SPC
WATCHES OUTLINING WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN
TO OUR W AND NW AT THIS TIME, JUST OUTSIDE OF OUT SC COUNTIES.
SPC SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON(LEVEL 3 OF
5)WITH MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING FOR OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA REMAINS THE SAME WITH 4 TO 6P ARRIVAL WEST OF
I-95 TO 6 TO 9P BEST CHC EAST OF I-95.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
*NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WHEN AREAS WEST OF I-95 SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE AROUND AS
THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SE NC AND NE SC. THE STRONG WSW TO SW LOW-
LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE AND ALSO
LEAD TO SOME LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THERE IS DEFINITELY PLENTY OF SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THOUGH AND THE SPC IS MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR NOW WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL (ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
I-95) AND A TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END
PRETTY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARER,
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT A BIT BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER/MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID-UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PIVOT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS, THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EACH DAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT STRIPES OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE IT.
WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AMIDST MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR, IT IS
QUESTIONABLE IF ANY CONVECTION WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING ABATES AS MID-UPPER FORCING TIED TO A SHORTWAVE
WILL BE VERY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE POPS ARE CURRENTLY HELD IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE DUE TO A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES IN QPF AMONGST THE MODEL
GUIDANCE (RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT THE 25TH
PERCENTILE TO TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50" AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE PERIOD 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY), THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHOWN A GENERAL TREND UPWARD IN QPF, SO POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
FOR A WETTER COLD FRONT.
COOL AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO
TEMPS STAYING NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TROUGHING EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK IS PROGGED TO PASS
OVERHEAD EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE, LEADING TO A
NOTICEABLE WARM-UP THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS RISING THROUGH
THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY ECLIPSING 90F INLAND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
BENEATH THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ORGANIZED PRECIP AT BAY, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THE INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FOLLOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY LOW CLOUDS TRANSITIONED TO STRATOCU THINNING OUT FROM W-SW
TO E-NE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES ISO TO SCT
STRATOCU WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ALSO FORM THE WEST.
VFR AT ALL SITES FOR NOW WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SUB-VFR IN
TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL, SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50+ KT
AND/OR LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WSW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. SHOULD SEE SKC AT ALL TERMINALS BY 04-06Z
TIMEFRAME, LASTING THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WE HAVE RAISED A SCA FOR THE NC WATERS FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS UP TO
6 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING AND BACKING TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARRIVING ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
TO NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS SWINGING BACK AROUND TO
EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY. SEAS IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 1-2 FT
RANGE ON SUNDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH
TUESDAY AMIDST A WEAK FLOW REGIME WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS.
DECAYING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAY
AFFECT THE NC WATERS MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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