086
FXUS62 KILM 311754
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR AND NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THE 5H
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOWER TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. IN FACT THE 5H
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES HARD TO FIND AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
FLATTENS AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH TO WEST WEAKLY BUILDS IN TODAY, WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW VS THE MORE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ARRIVE WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT
ARRIVES VERY LATE TONIGHT. TODAY'S POST FRONT AIRMASS WILL BE
DRY AND BREEZY, BUT NOT REALLY COOLER. IN FACT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
END UP THE SAME OR POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN FRI DUE
TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO DIP UNDER 40% ALONG WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
20-25 MPH AS STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SURFACE
ONCE SOME HEATING CAN GET MIXING GOING.
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING,
SETTING UP SUBSIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NICE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL AS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE WANES, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PVA AHEAD OF A
MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE. A LOT OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY WHILE THE CAMS SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT
SEEMS QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SHORT-LIVED, LOW TOPPED SHOWER. IT COULD BE A CASE OF THE CAMS
OVERDOING CONVECTION (AS THEY HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY) THUS ONLY
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE DAY, BUT
WILL NOT BE SHOCKED IF NOTHING DEVELOPS.
LOWS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND LATE SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FOLLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WHAT 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C WOULD
SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH INITIALLY SENT DOWN
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DURING THE PRECEDING NIGHT WILL
STALL, RESULTING IN WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AS
ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AWAY, BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
PIVOT DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PUSHING THE FRONT
OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
(PRIMARILY AROUND AND BELOW 700MB) OVER THE MID-SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER EASTERN US TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND COMBINE WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE SHOULD INITIATE UPSTREAM
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVELY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-30
KTS. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY, WITH A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE AREA BEFORE NOCTURNAL
COOLING LARGELY ELIMINATES THE ALREADY LOW SEVERE THREAT.
OTHERWISE, FAST-MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY OVER
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE A TENTH INCH OR LESS, BUT A COUPLE STRIPES OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
MAY BE ENOUGH TO YIELD ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID-UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AFTER HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A CURIOUS FEATURE THAT HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN UP IN THE GUIDANCE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND SETTING UP SHOP AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DETERMINE HOW SOON UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER BROAD
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONUS AND REACH THE EAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.
UNTIL ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE LOWS GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE 60S WITH EACH PASSING NIGHT AS DEW POINTS CREEP
UP IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS WILL WEAKEN AND DECREASE
IN FREQUENCY STARTING AROUND 20Z. WINDS DROP UNDER 10 KT IN THE
EVENING WITH DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO A MORE E-SE FLOW BY SUN AFTN
BUT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE IN NATURE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 6K AND 11K FT FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM AROUND 23Z TO 03Z ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ALOFT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. ADDED SOME SCT TO BKN ALTO CU AT THIS TIME, AND
COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER AT LBT OR ILM, BUT BETTER CHC TO THE
NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS START BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
SUN WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SHORT DURATION OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BUILD SEAS TO 3-5 FT, BUT OTHERWISE SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF A DOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND
WAVE AND A SOUTHEAST SWELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEST
OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AS THIS DRAWS CLOSER, ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS LARGELY HOLD IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE IN LIGHT OF THE GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS OF 1-2 FT AT 8-9 SEC OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY 1-2 FT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SEC EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME LESS
PROMINENT DURING THE WEEK AS THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TAKES OVER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ABW
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/ABW
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