853
FXUS62 KILM 312013
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
413 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A PASSING SHOWER THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGH BECOMES
BROADER AS IMPULSES DROP DOWN ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IN A LAYER
FROM 6K TO 11KT FT BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED, BUT WITH IMPULSE ALOFT, MAY SEE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OVER MAINLY NORTHERN TIER, BUT
OVERALL BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST.
THIS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUN AFTN, IT WILL GIVE ADDED SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AND
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND PEAK HEATING TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLY. OVERALL,
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE ON SUN WITH BETTER
CHC OF RAIN LATE DAY AFTER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKS. GUSTY
WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND
COLD FRONT AND THEN TO THE E-SE INTO SUN AFTN AS BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP CLOSE TO 60
MOST PLACES IN DRIER AIR MASS TONIGHT AND WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 80S SOUTH AND CLOSER TO 80 OVER NORTHERN TIER WHERE BETTER
CHC OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
INITIALLY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS A DECENT EAST TO WEST
ORIENTATION AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE SO POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIOD IS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY BUT GETS
MORE UNSETTLED IN TIME. IT APPEARS THE FIRST ROUND OF LOWER POPS
ARRIVING THURSDAY AND MORE COASTAL ORIENTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ITS
WORTH NOTING THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THIS
GUIDANCE/FORECAST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
A MORE TRADITIONAL CONTINENTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WARRANTS LOWER CHANCE POPS AND MORE WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES
INCREASE EARLY ON TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BUT
INCREASING POPS/MOISTURE SEEM TO CAP VALUES RIGHT THERE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS WILL WEAKEN AND DECREASE
IN FREQUENCY STARTING AROUND 20Z. WINDS DROP UNDER 10 KT IN THE
EVENING WITH DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO A MORE E-SE FLOW BY SUN AFTN
BUT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE IN NATURE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 6K AND 11K FT FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM AROUND 23Z TO 03Z ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ALOFT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. ADDED SOME SCT TO BKN ALTO CU AT THIS TIME, AND
COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER AT LBT OR ILM, BUT BETTER CHC TO THE
NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER TO THE NORTH BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUN AND THEN BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH
INTO SUN AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH LATE SUN. SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5
FT TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF THROUGH SUNDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY
LATE DAY. A MINIMAL SW SWELL WILL MIX IN.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS DON'T APPEAR TO
RISE MUCH ABOVE TEN KNOTS AT THE MOST SO NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/RGZ
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