961
FXUS62 KILM 280129
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
929 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE A BAGGY
UPPER LOW DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND A 593 DAM RIDGE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE
SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE EQUALLY BLAND WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A WEAK BERMUDA HIGH. THE LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FACTORS MEANS MESOSCALE EFFECTS LIKE THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFFER THE ONLY REAL PREDICTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT WITH
72-77 EXPECTED, WARMEST AT THE BEACHES. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE MID 90S.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND FORECAST POPS
ARE 20-30 PERCENT. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME
WEATHER. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE EAST WHILE AN
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT A DECENT MOISTURE FEED WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES UP
NEAR 2 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL, EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN
LOCALIZED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARIES, BUT EXPECT
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, WITH BETTER CHANCE INLAND
OF THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE MIGRATES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE DROP TO THE MID 70S AT NIGHT MOST PLACES AND RISE
INTO THE MID 90S IN THE AFTN. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN A FEW SPOTS
MAY NEAR 104, BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH HOT AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MID TO
UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST WITH
FRONT/TROUGH BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO
MIDWEEK. CONVECTION ON MON SHOULD REMAIN MORE LOCALIZED, BUT
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK BEING
ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE SFC FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THURS WITH MORE LOCALIZED AND LIMITED
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER WED AND THURS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND FRONT/TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 100 IN MOST PLACES MON AND TUE, BUT OVERALL
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINANTLY VFR OVER THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR MISSED THE TAF SITES TODAY, AND EXPECT
OVERALL COVERAGE TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES A BIT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
REEVALUATE IN FUTURE UPDATES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF
THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IN A VERY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SEABREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD DEVELOP
SATURDAY TURNING NEARSHORE WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH A LOCAL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE SHOULD REMAIN INLAND WITH NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET IN HEIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF 9 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES.
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE, KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEARSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS 2-3 FT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND WAVE SLIGHTLY MORE DOMINANT THAN THE SOUTHEAST SWELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS(S-SW)
ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUES INTO WED, WINDS SHOULD KICK UP A NOTCH REACHING
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT REACHING UP TO 3
TO 5 FT BY TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BACK
DOWN A BIT BY WED NIGHT INTO THURS. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL,
UP TO 9 SECONDS, WILL MIX IN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA/MBB
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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