298
FXUS62 KILM 281357
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
957 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS REVEAL AN ATMOSPHERE BROADLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL READY TO
BLOSSOM DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
REMAINS BLAND SO ANY INITIATION FOR CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO
COME FROM THE SURFACE. THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND A WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGH ARE TWO FEATURES TO WATCH CLOSELY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
YESTERDAY, SO I'M MAINTAINING 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. LATEST
MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
5H RIDGING FROM EAST OF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA THIS PERIOD. 5H LOW TO DRIFT FROM GA TO
THE FAR WESTERN CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. NORTH TO
SOUTH SFC TROF TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN NC AND SC THIS PERIOD.
THIS AND THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR
ONLY ISOLATED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY, THUS POPS LIMITED TO
LOW CHANCE, DISSIPATING AROUND OR AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER SUNSET.
CLOUDS GENERALLY CIRRUS THIN TO OCCASIONALLY OPAQUE. DIURNAL CU
BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW OF THESE DEVELOPING FURTHER INTO MATURE
TSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
TONIGHTS MINS, GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AFTN HEAT INDICES TO ECLIPSE 100-104
DEGREES, JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. LOW TO MID 70S
TONIGHTS LOWS EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
ESPECIALLY BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS,
INSTABILITY NOR MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. WE SHOULD MANAGE
1500J/KG OR BETTER, AND PW VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES WILL TOP THE
75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. WHAT WILL BE LACKING IS DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS IS FAIRLY NORMAL FOR SUMMER, WITH
FORCING LIMITED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. WE'VE HAD SUCH MINIMAL
STORM COVERAGE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW SO NO OUTFLOWS FROM SATURDAY
WILL LINGER AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE TO DO ALL OF THE
LIFTING (PUN INTENDED). THE MAIN REASON THIS WILL BE CHALLENGING
FOR THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE DRY AIR BENEATH THE 5-7KFT CLOUD
BASE, THE SUBCLOUD LAYER ALSO BEING QUITE DRY WITH THE INVERTED
V EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE OCEANIC INFLUENCE, ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MUCH OF THE LOGIC ABOVE WILL APPLY TO MONDAY. THERE IS ABOUT .15"
MORE OF PW WATER AND THE INSTABILITY LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT
THE DEPTH AND DRYNESS OF THE SUBCLOUD LAYER LOOKS MORE
PRONOUNCED AND POSSIBLY EVEN DEEPER. THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
LESS INLAND PROGRESS AND SO PAINTING THE BEST AREAS FOR 30-ISH
POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REFINED IN A DAY OR SO. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE MID 90S. STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE WEST OF THE AREA AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS CONVERGENCE IN THE UPSTATE
REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT ALOFT FOR THEM TO MARCH TOWARDS THE COAST. A DECAYING
FRONT OVERTAKES THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD VERY WELL OFFER
SOME OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT BECOMES
HARD TO DISCERN BY THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO FAIL TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA PREVENTING ANY AIRMASS CHANGE, WHICH IS FAIRLY COMMON THIS
FAR INTO THE SUMMER. IF ANY DAY OFFERS A CHANCE FOR PLACES TO
HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING 90 IT WILL BE WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXTRA
CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR OVER THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. LATEST
GFSLAMP GUIDANCE REMAINS NEGATIVE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT FROM
LOW STRATUS AND/OR GROUND FOG LEADING UP TO 12Z. SAT BASICALLY A
REPEAT OF FRI BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB30 TSTORM THREAT FOR
THE INLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. SW-WSW WINDS AOB 4 KT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT SEA BREEZE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY NOON, 2 PM FOR
ILM, WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SOUTH WIND AT 10-15 KT. DIURNAL CU
SHOULD COMMENCE LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH AGAIN THE INLAND TERMINALS HIGHLIGHTED WITH 30 PROB GROUPS
FOR CONVECTION. SCT-BKN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS TO PERSISTS THRU THIS EVENING OTHERWISE MAINLY SKC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED EAST OF NC. SW WINDS 10 KT TO DOMINATE
EXCEPT BECOMING SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AFTER THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE OCCURS. THESE
HEIGHTENED NEARSHORE WATERS WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
B4 THE DEMISE OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT,
MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE 2 TO 3 FOOT SE SWELL AT 9 SECOND
PERIODS. ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TSTM THAT MAY DRIFT
TO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OFFSHORE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING WIND
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE BULK OF SE SWELL ONLY PARTIALLY
AFFECTING THE REGION. THAT IS, THE WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE WHILE
THE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT THE PEAK ENERGY. LATER IN THE
PERIOD A COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN A WEAKENING STATE. THIS
SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL UP WIND SPEEDS BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY BY TUESDAY, LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. SIMILARLY OUR MAIN
FORECAST OF 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 3-4FT SEAS SHOULD OPEN UP TO 4-5
(MAINLY NC), STILL PRECLUDING AN ADVISORY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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