515
FXUS62 KILM 290114
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
914 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE COMING 24
HOURS. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AND BECOME A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WITH NO THERMAL DIFFERENCES
RELATIVE TO ITS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND A
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA. TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH, PLUS ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S
CONVECTION. FORECAST POPS CREEP UP A BIT RELATIVE TO THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND WE'RE FORECASTING 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES INLAND,
SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEABREEZE SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MOS GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS (71-76) AND
TOMORROW'S HIGHS (88-94) AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PRIOR
FORECAST CYCLE. PEAK HEAT INDICES SUNDAY SHOULD BE 102 DEGREES
AND NO HEAT ADVISORY IS PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC AND H5 RIDGE EXTENDING IN FROM THE EAST
WILL KEEP A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, BUT BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN WEST. PCP WATER VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE HIGHER
INLAND WITH GFS SHOWING VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES FOCUSED AROUND
SEA BREEZE WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT MORE LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S AGAIN
INLAND OF IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WED.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE UP OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
CAROLINAS TO START BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD GIVING RISE TO MUCH
BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT. THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS ON WED WITH BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. THE STORMS WILL GET PUSHED CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER
IN THE DAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH INTO WED NIGHT AND BY
THURS, THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE COAST LEAVING BEST
SUPPORT FOR STORMS OFF THE COAST. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON THURS WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BUT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHWRS AROUND, BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
OFFSHORE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LEADING TO
QUIETER BUT HOT WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 90S, ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS, BUT WED SHOULD
BE A BIT LESS HOT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND, TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 70.
HEAD INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OR ALL OF THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD, DEPENDENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT, CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW CIGS ARE VERY LOW TONIGHT.
ANOTHER HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND UP TO 10-15 KT.
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KFLO/KLBT WHERE THERE IS A
30-40% OF RAIN IN THE AFTN, WITH LOWER CHANCES AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IN A VERY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SEABREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
TURNING NEARSHORE WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH A LOCAL INCREASE TO 15
KNOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN INLAND WITH
LITTLE DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET IN HEIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF 9
SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT GETS
WASHED OUT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE S-SW ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS, BUT WILL INCREASE
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ON TUES WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LATE
TUES INTO EARLY WED, BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TUES INTO
TUES NIGHT. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL WILL MIX IN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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