639
FXUS62 KILM 291821
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NC-SC
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIMIT TO CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, ITS STRENGTH IS
NOT AS PRONOUNCED LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS. AND, LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS,
WILL HAVE THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROF AND THE SEA BREEZE AS FOCI
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. OVERALL, AROUND 30 POPS WILL BE THE
WAY TO GO, WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE PRIMARY
LOCATIONS UNDER THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OCCUR FROM EARLY AFTERNOON MIDDAY THRU
MID-EVENING. WILL OBSERVE WIDESPREAD 90-95 DEGREE READINGS
EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-103 DEGREE RANGE, NOT QUITE HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS OF 105.
TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE WITH THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER REMAINING UNDER THE GUN FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF SUN
AND MON NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE OUR LAST DAY OF ATYPICALLY SCANT CONVECTION
AS THE RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS HANGS ON JUST OFFSHORE. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SUNDAY'S QUIET CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND THE SEABREEZE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH PARCELS
ABOVE THE CAP AT 5KFT. POPS AGAIN CAPPED AT 30 AND TENDING TO
AVOID THE BEACH DUE TO A STORM MOTION OF 200 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
RISE, BUT THERE DOESN'T SEEM MUCH THAT WILL TEMPER THE HEAT. THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY, A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COULD CAP HIGHS BELOW 90. BY THURSDAY THE WEAKENED
FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOME OF THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS
STILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED POPS, LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST
MORE PROXIMAL TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS FRONT GETS HARD TO
ANALYZE ON WEATHER MAPS BY FRIDAY BUT THE NEXT ONE IS
APPROACHING ALREADY, PERHAPS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY MANAGES TO PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY FOR AN ACTUAL
AIRMASS CHANGE, AT LEAST BY JUNE STANDARDS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONVECTION AFFECTING ILM AND FLO TERMINALS AT START OF PERIOD
WITH MAINLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
LOCALIZED CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL FADE AWAY BY 20-22Z,
HANGING ON LONGER INLAND, BUT OVERALL ENDING BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FLARES WITH CU BUILDING BETWEEN 16Z
AND 18Z. LEFT OUT ANY PROB30 GROUPS LEADING UP TO 18Z MON FOR
NOW, BUT MAY SEE THEM INCLUDED IN LATER TAF TIMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR
SO OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON MON AFTN BUT
OVERALL, A SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS FOR ONE FINAL DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE AREA AND
CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BERMUDA SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SW WIND
DIRECTION. INLAND PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WILL PERSIST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 2 WX FEATURES WILL RESULT
IN WIND SPEEDS 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEARSHORE THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ONCE
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY WILL PROGRESS INLAND. IN ITS WAKE, THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST, WILL OBSERVE S
WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE. SEAS GENERALLY
AROUND 3 FT AND WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE PERSISTENT SMALL SE
SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WITH CHOPPY WHITE CAPPED WAVES ON TOP
THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW FRONTS WILL APPROACH
DURING THE LONG TERM BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAIN THE WIND-MAKERS. BY TUESDAY THE FIST FRONT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE, ABOUT A
CATEGORY INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING THE WIND WAVE/SWELL COMBO UP
TO 4-5 FT ESPECIALLY OVER NC WATERS. THE SWELL ENERGY WILL STILL
BE PRESENT OUT OF THE SE OR ESE BUT HAVE MUCH LESS PRESENCE
THAN THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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