933
FXUS62 KILM 291945
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALIZED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WAS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO FADE
AWAY AS HEATING OF THE DAY WEAKENS AND UPPER RIDGE STILL HOLDS
ON OVER THE AREA.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR ONE FINAL DAY ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC AND RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON, AND
WE COULD SEE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE THE LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN SAYING THIS, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE, BUT MAY SEE BETTER STORM
GROWTH FARTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL CAROLINAS. MODELS SHOWING BETTER
CHC ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. OVERALL, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN TODAY, UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE BETTER CAP NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH ABOVE 90 MOST
PLACES ON MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100, BUT
BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OF ANY MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD, DURING TIMES SURROUNDING HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES
*NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM/FLASH FLOOD RISK
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL BE GIVING
WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT. MAINLY EXPECT A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH TUE WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT
(MAINLY CONCENTRATED WELL INLAND TOWARD I-95). WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE VERY LOW. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE WED; NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES THU THROUGH SUN
*VERY LOW SEVERE STORM/FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON WED
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED; NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THE REST
OF THE PERIOD
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
AND WEAKENING INTO LATE WEEK, POSSIBLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK BEFORE THE RETURN OF A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE ONE CAVEAT COULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
BIT BETTER RAIN CHANCES THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR SUN. THE LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPLIES MORE IN THE WAY OF PULSE/SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WHICH FAVORS PRETTY LOW SEVERE STORM CHANCES AND A
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLASH FLOOD RISK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (105 DEGREES).
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONVECTION AFFECTING ILM AND FLO TERMINALS AT START OF PERIOD
WITH MAINLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
LOCALIZED CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL FADE AWAY BY 20-22Z,
HANGING ON LONGER INLAND, BUT OVERALL ENDING BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FLARES WITH CU BUILDING BETWEEN 16Z
AND 18Z. LEFT OUT ANY PROB30 GROUPS LEADING UP TO 18Z MON FOR
NOW, BUT MAY SEE THEM INCLUDED IN LATER TAF TIMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR
SO OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON MON AFTN BUT
OVERALL, A SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS FOR ONE FINAL DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE AREA AND
CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A SSW
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MAINLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
A SPIKE UPWARD NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVE SEA BREEZE.
SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS, WITH A PERSISTENT MINIMAL
SE LONGER PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 SECONDS AND A LIGHT CHOP IN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A STALLING COLD FRONT NEARS LATE WEEK
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES,
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT (MAINLY THROUGH TUE NIGHT), BUT SEAS SHOULD
STAY 5 FT OR LESS. THUS, THE RISK OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL
SEEMS TO BE PRETTY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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