352
FXUS62 KILM 292355
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LINGERING CELLS TO THE WEST. NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW, AND HAVE INCLUDED A
RIP CURRENT SECTION REGARDING HIGH RISK POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALIZED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WAS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO FADE
AWAY AS HEATING OF THE DAY WEAKENS AND UPPER RIDGE STILL HOLDS
ON OVER THE AREA.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR ONE FINAL DAY ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC AND RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON, AND
WE COULD SEE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE THE LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN SAYING THIS, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE, BUT MAY SEE BETTER STORM
GROWTH FARTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL CAROLINAS. MODELS SHOWING BETTER
CHC ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. OVERALL, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN TODAY, UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE BETTER CAP NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH ABOVE 90 MOST
PLACES ON MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100, BUT
BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OF ANY MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD, DURING TIMES SURROUNDING HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES
*NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM/FLASH FLOOD RISK
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL BE GIVING
WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT. MAINLY EXPECT A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH TUE WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT
(MAINLY CONCENTRATED WELL INLAND TOWARD I-95). WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE VERY LOW. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE WED; NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES THU THROUGH SUN
*VERY LOW SEVERE STORM/FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON WED
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED; NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THE REST
OF THE PERIOD
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
AND WEAKENING INTO LATE WEEK, POSSIBLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK BEFORE THE RETURN OF A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE ONE CAVEAT COULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
BIT BETTER RAIN CHANCES THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR SUN. THE LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPLIES MORE IN THE WAY OF PULSE/SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WHICH FAVORS PRETTY LOW SEVERE STORM CHANCES AND A
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLASH FLOOD RISK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (105 DEGREES).
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGHOUT THE 0Z TAF PERIOD, WITH ELEVATED
WINDS HINDERING FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS AROUND 5 MILES NEAR DAWN INLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 2500 FT BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED FOR
PREVAILING VFR. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LBT AND FLO. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 KTS (HIGHEST AT COASTAL TERMINALS).
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE AREA AND
CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A SSW
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MAINLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
A SPIKE UPWARD NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVE SEA BREEZE.
SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS, WITH A PERSISTENT MINIMAL
SE LONGER PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 SECONDS AND A LIGHT CHOP IN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A STALLING COLD FRONT NEARS LATE WEEK
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES,
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT (MAINLY THROUGH TUE NIGHT), BUT SEAS SHOULD
STAY 5 FT OR LESS. THUS, THE RISK OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL
SEEMS TO BE PRETTY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FORECASTED FOR THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY, AS WELL AS
BEACHES NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH IN HORRY COUNTY, FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY 6 SEC SWELL BUILDS TO 4-5 FEET AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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