263
FXUS62 KILM 011104
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
704 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS STILL BEING PUSHED INTO
EASTERN 1/3RD OF VA/NC/SC FROM THE UPPER HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING NOSING ONSHORE TO THE MENTIONED LOCALES.
LOW TOPPED NOCTURNAL OCEANIC SHOWERS MOVING WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL S-SSW FLOW, WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE ONSHORE AND DISSIPATE
OR SCRAPE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NOT MUCH OF A QPF WITH THIS
PCPN. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO RETREAT THIS PERIOD AS A POS
TILTED UPPER TROF DIVES SOUTHEAST, REACHING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND REACHING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
BY DAYBREAK WED. A SFC TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS AND BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
THRU TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP FROM THE NE GULF
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTN, HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT PINNED ACROSS
SC BUT LIKELY PUSH INLAND NORTH OF THE NC-SC BORDER GIVEN THE
SSW WIND DIRECTION. WILL DEFINITELY OBSERVE MORE CLOUDINESS
DURING TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRE-
DAWN WED HRS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THRU THE PREDAWN
HRS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE UPPER TROF. .
STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 90-95 DEGREE READINGS FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY, MID 80S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT SYNOPTIC SSW WINDS
NOT JUST ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS. TONIGHT'S LOW, WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 70S, A FEW UPPER 70S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD IN TANDEM WITH A
SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT, AN UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING/PASSING THROUGH, AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY ONWARD AMIDST A WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL KEEP
INDIVIDUAL STORM LIFESPANS SHORT, BUT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD PERMIT
NEW STORM FORMATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND STEADY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF INSTABILITY
STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE OCEAN, MAINLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2", STRONGER STORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
THAT CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE
REPEAT STORMS OCCUR. AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEARER TO THE COAST, THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, BUT THE
FRONT MAY NOT QUITE CLEAR THE COAST UNTIL SOME TIME ON THURSDAY,
LEADING TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S BEFORE
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LIMIT TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEW POINTS INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERMIT LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS GO STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, THE
FRONT WILL STALL, AND WHETHER THIS IS JUST OFFSHORE OR ONSHORE
REMAINS A QUESTION. HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THAN USUAL. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE
IS HONING IN ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THE BACKSIDE OF BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US, WHICH WOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS WELL, SO POPS ARE
HELD IN THE 40-50% RANGE NEAR THE COAST, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AS A CLOSED LOW PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND
REACHES NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
REGION LATE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY. A MORE SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST ON
THURSDAY WILL NUDGE UPWARD 2-4 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD EXPECTATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH ISOLATED POP-UP CONVECTION
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND
AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHAT HAPPENS
TO THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG
THE FRONT AS TROUGHING ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT A PIECE OF
VORTICITY ENDS UP BREAKING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WHERE
THIS LOW (OR LOWS) MIGHT DEVELOP, TRACK, AND WHETHER IT WOULD
ACQUIRE AT LEAST SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ARE ALL QUESTIONS
AT THIS TIME, AND UNTIL THE FRONT STALLS IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE
TROUGHING ALOFT DEPARTS, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE ANY
DEFINITIVE ANSWERS AS TO WHETHER OUR LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE
IMPACTED. NHC MAINTAINS A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR TO MAINLY DOMINATE THIS MORNING, EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CEILING ACROSS FLO THRU 13Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD TO
PREVAIL DURING TODAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTN THRU
MID-EVENING. COASTAL TERMINALS PRIMARILY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN
WITH INLAND TERMINALS LASTING INTO THE EVENING. PROB30 GROUPS
WERE USED TO CONVEY THE CONVECTION THREAT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
THE NEXT THREAT FOR PCPN, MAINLY MVFR SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
TSTORM POSSIBLE, WILL BE DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. LLJ EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP S-SSW WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE,
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15+ KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TIGHTENING
SFC PG AND CONTINUED DECENT SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN
S-SSW WINDS LATER THIS MORNING THRU MID-EVENING AT 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INLAND, UP TO 25+ KT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS IN THE
VICINITY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE SCOURING OUT. EXPECT
POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THU THRU SAT FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SCA ALREADY POSTED FROM 11AM THIS MORNING THRU
5AM WED. A SSW DIRECTION LLJ IS AIDING THE ACTIVE SFC S-SSW
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL HELP DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF IT, THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER
TIGHTEN RESULTING IN SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KT AT
TIMES, DURING THE SCA PERIOD. ONCE FULLY RISEN, SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 3 TO 5 FT, WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD, 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD,
WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM THIS PERIOD. AN UNDERLYING
SMALL E TO SE SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST IT
WILL SLOW DOWN, KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ACTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY FRONT
DROPPING DOWN WILL BRING A BETTER PUSH OF DRY AIR AND SHOULD PUSH
CONVECTION FURTHER OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. WINDS SWING AROUND TO
EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH DOMINATES THE WEATHER. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND WAVES WITH A PERIOD AROUND 6
SEC.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY, AS WELL AS BEACHES NORTH
OF MYRTLE BEACH IN HORRY COUNTY, FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY 6 SEC SWELL BUILDS TO 4-5 FEET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO
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