497
FXUS62 KILM 011756
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
156 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS NOW.
MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT FLOW OUT OF THE SSW HAS CONTINUED TO BRING IN
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, THANKS TO A LITTLE MORE FORCING FROM AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. THESE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DYING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION WILL TRY TO REIGNITE IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS INLAND LATE
TONIGHT, THANKS TO SOME WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. KINEMATICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AREN'T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, SO SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T
MUCH OF A CONCERN. DESPITE THAT, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SOARING ABOVE 2 INCHES CREATE A POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN TRAINING STORMS. STORM
MOTIONS AND CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS (15-19 KTS), SO IT MAY TAKE A BIT MORE
TRAINING TO GET FLOODING. EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER HANGING ABOVE
2 INCHES, THERE'S SOME LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
WOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. EVEN SO, RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-3"/HOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND WE ARE IN A "MARGINAL RISK"
(THREAT LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CUT OFF
THE HEAT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME HIGHER POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING VIA THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. PER USUAL THE FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE WIND
SHIFT GRADUALLY OCCURS MID DAY OR SO THURSDAY. GOOD CHANCE POPS
RESIDE MORE ALONG COASTAL AREAS LATER THURSDAY DUE THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH REFRESHING
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOME OFFSHORE MOISTURE MAY ADVECT
SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH QUICK AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WARRANTS LOWER CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE PROB30 GROUPS AT EVERY
TERMINAL TO REPRESENT POSSIBLE TSRA FROM 18-22Z. MORE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, DUE TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT KFLO AND KLBT BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. BULK OF THE CONVECTION DOESN'T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MORE PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ONGOING SSW WINDS BRINGING MORE
INSTABILITY ONSHORE FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS IN THE
VICINITY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE SCOURING OUT. EXPECT
POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THU THRU SAT FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, BACKING OFF TO 15 KTS AFTER
THE ADVISORY IS OVER, GUSTING UP TO 20-22 KTS. SEAS MOSTLY LINGER
NEAR 3-4 FT, WITH A FEW 5-6 FT WAVES LIKELY DURING THE ADVISORY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BRIEF WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WHICH BECOMES DISTORTED
DURING THE DAY VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED NE TO E FLOW
DEVELOPS AT LEAST BRIEFLY SATURDAY. FINALLY A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL MARK A RETURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR WIND SPEEDS NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING OF THE STANDARD 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET PERHAPS BETTER REPRESENTED BY 2-3
FEET AT TIMES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY, AS WELL AS BEACHES NORTH
OF MYRTLE BEACH IN HORRY COUNTY, FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY 6 SEC SWELL BUILDS TO 4-5 FEET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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