128
FXUS62 KILM 020009
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS NOW.
MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT FLOW OUT OF THE SSW HAS CONTINUED TO BRING IN
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, THANKS TO A LITTLE MORE FORCING FROM AN UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. THESE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DYING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION WILL TRY TO REIGNITE IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS INLAND LATE
TONIGHT, THANKS TO SOME WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. KINEMATICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AREN'T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, SO SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T
MUCH OF A CONCERN. DESPITE THAT, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SOARING ABOVE 2 INCHES CREATE A POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN TRAINING STORMS. STORM
MOTIONS AND CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS (15-19 KTS), SO IT MAY TAKE A BIT MORE
TRAINING TO GET FLOODING. EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER HANGING ABOVE
2 INCHES, THERE'S SOME LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
WOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. EVEN SO, RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-3"/HOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND WE ARE IN A "MARGINAL RISK"
(THREAT LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CUT OFF
THE HEAT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME HIGHER POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING VIA THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. PER USUAL THE FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE WIND
SHIFT GRADUALLY OCCURS MID DAY OR SO THURSDAY. GOOD CHANCE POPS
RESIDE MORE ALONG COASTAL AREAS LATER THURSDAY DUE THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH REFRESHING
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOME OFFSHORE MOISTURE MAY ADVECT
SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH QUICK AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WARRANTS LOWER CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY TONIGHT,
WITH LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT WEST OF
I-95 FROM ~9Z INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
IF THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KFLO AND KLBT, AND IF THEY DO HOW
LONG BEFORE THEY LIFT TO VFR. CURRENTLY FORECASTING MVFR AT FLO
FROM 10-14Z, HANGING ON A LITTLE LONGER AT LBT UNTIL ~16Z. THERE
MAY BE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW.
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES EXPECTED BY MIDDAY LEADING TO
VARIABLE VSBYS. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, BACKING OFF TO 15 KTS AFTER
THE ADVISORY IS OVER, GUSTING UP TO 20-22 KTS. SEAS MOSTLY LINGER
NEAR 3-4 FT, WITH A FEW 5-6 FT WAVES LIKELY DURING THE ADVISORY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BRIEF WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WHICH BECOMES DISTORTED
DURING THE DAY VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED NE TO E FLOW
DEVELOPS AT LEAST BRIEFLY SATURDAY. FINALLY A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL MARK A RETURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR WIND SPEEDS NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING OF THE STANDARD 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET PERHAPS BETTER REPRESENTED BY 2-3
FEET AT TIMES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: ALTHOUGH THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF TODAY
SHOULD ABATE BY ABOUT 5-8 MPH WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH 6 SECOND SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY,
NC. ELSEWHERE THE WIND WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY PARALLEL-TO-
SHORE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE RIP CURRENT INTENSITY. A
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT (FLOWING SOUTH TO NORTH) WILL REMAIN
FORECAST FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...SHK/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
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