549
FXUS62 KILM 020803
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
403 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THU. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRI WITH A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER LIKELY
INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED SURF ZONE HAZARDS TO INCLUDE HORRY COUNTY IN A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT DUE TO ANTICIPATED STRONG RIP CURRENTS MAINLY
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN/MOON EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH DECENT
THREAT FOR PCPN. SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE
CAROLINA APPALACHGIANS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE ON THE
LEE SIDE, WESTERN CAROLINAS, BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION
AHEAD AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ONCE THE INCOMING INSOLATION COMMENCES, THUS
INCREASING THE INSTABILITY PROCESS. WILL RAMP UP CONVECTION
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 THIS MORNING, THEN OVERSPREADING THE FA
FROM LATER THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH, THE
SEVERITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES
AND LACK OF DECENT SHEAR, THE HEAVY RAIN RESULTING WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASING THREAT OF PONDING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY LATE
TODAY AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT. THUS THE SLOW
MOVING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRAINING OF
PCPN ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE PROGGED TO REACH
2.00 AND 2.25 INCHES, FURTHER AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SSW-SW WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TUE AS THE
SFC PG SLOWLY RELAXES-SOME AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY. TEMPS THIS PERIOD NEAR NORML, MAX TEMPS WILL TOP IN
THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE AND TONIGHTS LOWS SHOULD REACH AROUND
90, AND TONIGHTS MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY; WHILE COARSER GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY,
MANY HI-RES MODELS SHOW IT MUCH FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS NEAR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. REGARDLESS OF ITS POSITION, GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US, WITH FAVORABLE TIMING TO
INDUCE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2" ALONG THE COAST) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST, WHERE SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG MAY BE
REALIZED. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 10-20 KTS WILL KEEP STORM
LIFETIMES SHORT, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORMS
MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KTS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES DURING THE EVENING, EXPECT CONVECTION
TO GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH, THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NUDGED NEAR OR OFF THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
PUSHING ANY REMAINING CONVECTION OFFSHORE WITH IT.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST FOR HIGHS AND LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-70S NEAR THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT OF QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND STALL OFFSHORE.
DECREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED ON FRIDAY, EVEN WITH THE SECONDARY
FRONT COMING DOWN. THE CLOSED LOW WILL PULL THE BROADER
TROUGHING EASTWARD WITH IT, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE THIS SECONDARY FRONT
WILL BRING A REFRESHING AIR MASS CHANGE WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE (MARKED BY PWATS DROPPING AS LOW AS
1.25" OR SO ON SATURDAY), IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW LONG THIS
DRYNESS WILL LAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST OVER TOP OF THE STALLED
FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE GEFS AND
ECENS GUIDANCE AND THE EURO AIFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM ALL
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ONE WEAK LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD OCCUR OVER TIME AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
HELP TO LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE, WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT CONVECTION HELPING TO FORM SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT LAST. THUS, IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE WHERE ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS MAY ORGANIZE UNTIL
LOW-LEVEL SPIN BECOMES EVIDENT IN RADAR OR SATELLITE DATA. AS A
RESULT, WHERE ANY PARTICULAR SURFACE LOW HAPPENS TO FORM AND
TRACK AND WHERE ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME MAY BE PULLED
TOWARDS LAND IS VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT, AND EACH
RUN OF THE MODELS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SHOW A DIFFERENT LOCATION FOR
WHERE IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW AND WHERE IT MIGHT IMPACT LAND.
NEVERTHELESS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS RAISED ITS
CHANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO 40% IN LIGHT OF THIS
TREND.
UNTIL THE OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME IS DRAWN BACK TOWARDS LAND,
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN USUAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND
AND MID-70S NEAR THE COAST. SOME UPPER 60S CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWER DEW
POINTS FILTER IN. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ANY SURFACE LOWS WELL OFFSHORE AND
HOW THE MOISTURE PLUME IS AFFECTED BY THEM.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING WITH S-SSW WINDS STAYING ACTIVE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR
FLO AND LBT OF WHETHER UPSTREAM PCPN MAKES IT TO THE TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TODAY THRU THIS EVENING FROM CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALSO AIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. PREVAILING PCPN
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PROB30 GROUPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SSW-SW AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING,
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE
SFC PG RELAXES TONIGHT WITH RESULTING SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5
TO 10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRI FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THIS WEEKEND WITH VFR DOMINATING.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO CONDITIONS
HAVING DROPPED BELOW ADV THRESHOLDS. STILL LOOKING AT SSW-SW 15
TO 20 KT SUSTAINED TODAY, WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE SFC PG
TO SLOWLY RELAX LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT RESULTING IN SW
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT, FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT. SE TO S WAVE AT 5 TO 7
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER LAND ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAND SHOULD
REACH THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT
AND STALL, KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY
TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OVER
THE WEEKEND, PROMINENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
HOLDS FIRM WHILE SURFACE PRESSURE LOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUITE ACTIVE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE
SURFACE LOWS EMERGING, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING THE
COASTAL WATERS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHEN
AND WHERE THESE LOW(S) TRACK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
MAINLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE, ALTHOUGH HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE
WHEN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY GET
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: ALTHOUGH THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF TUE
SHOULD ABATE BY ABOUT 5-8 MPH TODAY, THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH 6 SECOND SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY,
NC. ELSEWHERE THE WIND WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY PARALLEL-TO-
SHORE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE RIP CURRENT INTENSITY. A
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT (FLOWING SOUTH TO NORTH) WILL REMAIN
FORECAST FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ABW
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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