378
FXUS62 KILM 021719
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CONVECTION READILY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A VERY MOIST
BUT NOT NECESSARILY THAT UNSTABLE OF AN AIRMASS. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES LITTLE TO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE MORE COASTAL
CENTRIC OR I-95 EASTWARD RIGHT NOW...SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
OR WANDER INTO THE WESTERN AREAS IN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL THURSDAY MORNING THEN WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY MIDDAY OR SO MORE CONCENTRATED EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
APPROACH THE LOWER 70S WITH THURSWDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE 4TH HOLIDAY WITH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN A 5H
RIDGE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A 5H LOW DROPPING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW CAN SOMETIMES BE A
TROUBLEMAKER WHEN IT COMES TO THE CAROLINAS, IN THE FORM OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE FOR
THIS EVENT. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR, BOTH
THANKS TO THE 5H RIDGE, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LIMITED. ONLY
REAL CHANCE WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE AND
REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT MIGHT BE ABLE TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND PUSHES THE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED SURFACE
AND MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH SOME BAGGINESS ALOFT RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT. THE LOW MEANDERS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUN WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH LIMITING
ITS MOVEMENT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE LATER SUN OR SUN
NIGHT WHICH OPENS THE DOOR FOR THIS FEATURE TO START GAINING SOME
LATITUDE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT POSSES
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES TO 2.4 INCHES
SUN INTO MON. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE IN PLACE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. STORM MOTION IS ON THE HIGH END OF FAVORED
NUMBERS, AROUND 10 MPH, BUT THE DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL
ENSURE STORMS ARE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. HARD TO SAY AT
THIS POINT WHAT AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW, BUT IT
IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS TUE/WED WITH A BROAD, BUT WEAK
5H RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEING DISPLACED SLIGHTLY BY THE EXITING 5H
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW. NO SIGNS OF DYNAMIC FORCING TUE/WED, BUT PLENTY
OF MOISTURE, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE SEA BREEZE/TROUGH.
EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE TYPICAL OF
SUMMER.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON KEEPING HIGHS
UNDER 90 IN MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY SUN. LOW TO MID 90S RETURN
TUE/WED. LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WARMEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO NO SMALL EXTENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WILL WARRANT TEMPO
(MVFR) GROUPS MORESO ALONG THE COAST TRENDING INTO PROB30 GROUPS IN
A FEW HOURS. THIS IS NECESSITATED BY GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. BEYOND THIS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN IFR STRATUS
AND OR BR INLAND. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM REASONABLE WITH THE WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN. WENT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LBT VIA
GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRI FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION. CONVECTION MORE
ISOLATED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VFR DOMINATING.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THE FRONT
AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT THEN BECOME SLIGHTLY DISTORTED BY THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SHOW A SUBTLE DOWNWARD
TREND BASICALLY FROM 2- 4 FEET TO 2-3 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED FRONT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE LIMITED. WEAK
GRADIENT INTO FRI STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AS
THE LOW STARTS TO ORGANIZE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND THE WEAK LOW COULD LEAD TO EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT LATE FRI. SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
SUN MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX AND WINDS
DECREASE. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS CLOSE
TO 6 FT IN SOME AREAS LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. OTHERWISE SEAS
WILL RUN 3-4 FT. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: ALTHOUGH THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF TUE
SHOULD ABATE BY ABOUT 5-8 MPH TODAY, THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH 6 SECOND SOUTHERLY WAVE ENERGY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY,
NC. ELSEWHERE THE WIND WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY PARALLEL-TO-
SHORE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE RIP CURRENT INTENSITY. A
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT (FLOWING SOUTH TO NORTH) WILL REMAIN
FORECAST FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...III/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW
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