339
FXUS62 KILM 031039
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH MID-MORNING. UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHERE JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S JUST EAST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS IN THE PIEDMONT. UNDER THE
COVER OF DARKNESS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY, BUT HOW FAR IT WILL
REACH REMAINS A QUESTION. AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AMIDST LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS AND WET GROUND, FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY AROUND AND WEST OF I-95. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY <2 MI OR VERY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS IS THERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS, SO
MORNING COMMUTERS AND THOSE ON I-95 MAY BE AFFECTED.
FOR TODAY, LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOLAR
HEATING SHOULD PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE COAST. THE
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD IN OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE, WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO TWO THINGS: 1) A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED
DOWN A BIT IN THE LATEST RUNS AND THIS RESULTS IN ITS FORCING
ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY AND 2) DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN
OVER TOP OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR INCIPIENT
UPDRAFTS TO SURVIVE THEIR INITIAL ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS, BETWEEN
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND ANY
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW/COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION, THESE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING
THE LATE MORNING, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSING AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING RISK AGAIN.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR, ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS MAY
STAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS, AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS. OTHERWISE, THE STALLED FRONT
SHOULD BE NUDGED TO THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT,
LITTLE LOWERING OF DEW POINTS IS ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE INSTEAD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WITH
UPR-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, EXPECT LOWER POPS
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE...LEADING TO CLOSE TO CLIMO POPS...CHANCE NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND, WITH A DRYING TREND FOLLOWING THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SFC HIGH REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
LOW AND WHETHER IT WILL OBTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (NHC
HAS A 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION), BUT EITHER WAY
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE LOW'S CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE AREA, WEAK STEERING FLOW, AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
THEN FOLLOW LEADING TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOLLOWING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S SATURDAY/SUNDAY,
EXPECT LOW/MID 90S MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VERY LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE AFFECTING INLAND
TERMINALS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AT THE TAIL END OF
THE NIGHT NEAR THE COAST. RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MIX
OUT WITHIN 2 HRS OF SUNRISE, BUT THOSE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE VERY LOW CIGS,
BUT THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BREAK THROUGH AND
LIKELY MIX THEM OUT AROUND MID-MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA
THERE AS WELL. ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A PASSING STORM SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED OWING TO MOSTLY SMALL STORM SIZES AND SHORT
LIFESPANS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE TOOLS ARE HONING IN ON
A GREATER FOG THREAT THAN LOW STRATUS, LIKELY DUE TO DRYING IN
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE,
TRANSIENT MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME
RETURNS INLAND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS TODAY, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AHEAD
OF IT. EVENTUALLY, THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT OFFSHORE AND STALL
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT, WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS THE APPALACHIANS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES
LEFTOVER FROM THE STRONGER WINDS OF YESTERDAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WILL BE PRIMARILY
DRIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SEC.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER THIS
LOW BECOMES TROPICAL (NHC SHOWS A 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION), BUT REGARDLESS EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS STILL POSSIBLE EVEN IF THE LOW STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/ABW
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