559
FXUS62 KILM 031746
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
146 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SURFACE OBS INDICATE
THAT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PUSHING OFFSHORE
AND COMPETING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY INLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME
MATERIALIZING AS DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDS EASTWARD. WEAK SUBSIDENCE,
CLEAR SKIES, SATURATED SOILS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
COULD BECOME DENSE BY SUNRISE. THANKFULLY, GIVEN THAT FRIDAY IS A
HOLIDAY, MORNING TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH, DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE'LL FOCUS LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ON THE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ZONES: THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND REMAINING HUMID DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE SO-
CALLED "COLD FRONT."
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING HELPS KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY BEFORE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES SOMETIME SAT OR SAT NIGHT. STILL A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
DESPITE IT BEING A LITTLE MORE THAN 2 DAYS AWAY. THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE/WEAK LOW ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE
COAST IS LEADING TO A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE. THERE
WILL BE A HEALTHY PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, BUT WHERE IT ENDS UP
DEVELOPING AND THEN HEADING WILL DEPEND WHEN AND WHERE THE LOW
ITSELF ACTUALLY FORMS. DO KNOW THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE, LIKELY MEANDERING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL.
WEAK STEERING FLOW COUPLED WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LOW AND THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH COULD KEEP THE LOW ALMOST STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
UNTIL THE LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
THE SPECIFICS, BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES COULD BE ALONG THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD NOT BE A DIRECT RESULT OF THE LOW, IT WOULD BE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AS IT DEVELOPS COMBINED WITH DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING 5H RIDGE. SEA BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL DO THEIR PART. RAIN CHANCES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST REMAINS CLOUDY SUN/MON(PUN INTENDED) WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUING TO MUDDY THE FORECAST
WATERS. WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME AFFECTS FROM THIS LOW BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS THE KEY TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. IMPACTS COULD
RANGE FROM LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND LIMITED RAIN INLAND.
WIND DOES CURRENTLY NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AND
SOMETHING THAT IS HARD TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY. THE LOW HAS YET TO DEVELOP AND UNTIL IT DOES, THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY FEATURES WILL REMAIN A BIG QUESTION MARK.
THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGES TO 2.2-2.4" SUN INTO MON AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IS OVER 16K FT! SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO COME INTO
PLAY WITH TRAINING STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS. DESPITE ALL OF THIS, THE RAIN ACTUALLY
NEEDS TO FALL OVER LAND AND NOT ACROSS THE OCEAN TO BE A CONCERN. SO
FOR NOW IT CONTINUES TO BE A WAIT AND SEE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL SUN MAY CREEP BACK TO NORMAL MON, DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW EXITS. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP TUE THROUGH THU WITH BERMUDA
HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WEAK, FLATTENED
RIDGING AT 5H TUE INTO WED IS PUSHED SOUTH DURING WED BY APPROACHING
5H TROUGH. THE DECREASING HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL, AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY TUE-THU.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VERY LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE AFFECTING INLAND
TERMINALS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AT THE TAIL END OF
THE NIGHT NEAR THE COAST. RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MIX
OUT WITHIN 2 HRS OF SUNRISE, BUT THOSE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE VERY LOW CIGS,
BUT THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BREAK THROUGH AND
LIKELY MIX THEM OUT AROUND MID-MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA
THERE AS WELL. ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A PASSING STORM SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED OWING TO MOSTLY SMALL STORM SIZES AND SHORT
LIFESPANS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY
AND DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE TOOLS ARE HONING IN ON
A GREATER FOG THREAT THAN LOW STRATUS, LIKELY DUE TO DRYING IN
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE,
TRANSIENT MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME
RETURNS INLAND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY, WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AHEAD OF IT. EVENTUALLY,
THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT OFFSHORE AND STALL OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT, WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY VEERING
TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE
APPALACHIANS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES LEFTOVER FROM THE
STRONGER WINDS OF YESTERDAY WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SEC.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONLY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS LATE FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SAT. WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20KT WINDS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS AN
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS.
THE WHERE AND WHEN RELATED TO THE LOW ARE THE BIGGEST AND HAVE
THE MOST IMPACT ON IF AND WHERE ENHANCED WINDS DEVELOP. MAY NEED
A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT
FOR SEAS AND POSSIBLY WINDS, BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE HAVE
NO PLANS FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE LOW DOES ITS
THING AND MOVES OFF, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE, SOMEWHAT ENHANCED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS BEGIN TRENDING DOWN SLOWLY LATER SAT
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUE, DROPPING UNDER 5 FT AS SUN TURNS
INTO MON AND UNDER 4 FT BY MIDDAY MON. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF A
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND A SOUTHEAST SWELL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES. PRESENCE OF AN EASTERLY
SWELL (A SWELL DIRECTION NOTORIOUS FOR CREATING STRONG RIP
CURRENTS), EVEN THOUGH IT IS OF A SOMEWHAT SHORTER PERIOD,
OBSERVATIONS OF BREAKING WAVES 2-3 FT AND EXPECTED HEAVY BEACH
CROWDS DUE TO UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND FELT, IN COORDINATION
WITH LIFEGUARDS, THAT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK WAS WARRANTED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
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