835
FXUS62 KILM 041054
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
REFRESHED SKY AND POPS TO REFLECT LATEST AVAILABLE HI-RES
GUIDANCE FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY. 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF MID-UPPER
CLOUDINESS CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST US WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, COASTAL COUNTIES
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO COOL AND DEVELOP AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS BY DAYBREAK TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDINESS
MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO DISSIPATE ANY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE,
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-70S NEAR THE COAST REMAIN
ON TRACK.
IN THE MID-LEVELS, A CLOSED LOW PIVOTING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND
A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. INITIALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL VEER TOWARDS NORTHEASTERLY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES AND WILL
SETTLE ON EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE STILL PRESENT
EARLY THIS MORNING, DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD MIX DOWN TODAY AND RESULT
IN DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE.
WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES, A CHANNELIZED LOBE OF VORTICITY
ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER NC AND SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TODAY
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP GIVEN HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S, CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR IN THE MID-UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO
YOUNG UPDRAFTS AND KEEP COVERAGE OF RAIN IN CHECK AND ANY MEASURED
TOTALS LESS THAN A TENTH INCH AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS, ONE OR TWO
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WHICH WOULD BRING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" IN A NARROW SWATH. OTHERWISE, IN ANY GIVEN
PLACE, EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST.
TONIGHT, ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. THE OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD
BEGIN TO NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, STEADY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THESE SHOULD PREVENT RADIATION FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN MAY BEGIN
SLIDING INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. LOW IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-
70S NEAR THE COAST ARE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. NHC HAS A 60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION, AND EVEN WITH THAT THERE'S PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS TRACK SINCE IT COULD EITHER COME ASHORE
OVER THE CAROLINAS OR STAY OFF THE COAST. EITHER WAY, NOT
EXPECTING SURGE OR WIND IMPACTS OVER LAND WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN POTENTIAL THREAT DUE TO HIGH PWAT,
WEAK STEERING FLOW, AND VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING QPF HOWEVER DESPITE THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS,
WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM BETWEEN UNDER AN INCH
TO A FEW INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN (POPS UP TO 70S%) IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, THOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
HOLDS OFF ITS APPROACH UNTIL MONDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE LOCAL AREA
RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DUE TO TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT, DAILY SEABREEZES, AND DECENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO OR JUST SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGREES).
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANY EARLY-MORNING RESTRICTIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT SOON AFTER
12Z, LEAVING A PREDOMINANTLY VFR DAY. ONE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND AFFECTING THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE MID-UPPER ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE, BUT IF ANY OF
THESE WERE TO DEVELOP OR MOVE OVER A TERMINAL, BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
VIS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD OWING TO STEADY
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS PRECLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, BUT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED IF A SHOWER WERE TO PASS
OVER A TERMINAL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
PLENTIFUL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE, TRANSIENT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OFFSHORE MOISTURE
PLUME RETURNS INLAND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VEER TO EASTERLY BY MIDDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING GRADUALLY TO 15-20 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A MOISTURE PLUME
AROUND A STALLED FRONT BEGINS SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.
SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT
TONIGHT AS INCREASING LONG-FETCH WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
CONTRIBUTE TO LARGER SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 7
SEC.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF TO THE SOUTH. WITH IT 3RD/4TH PERIOD AND
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR THE 6 FT SEAS PENETRATE INTO OUR
0-20NM ZONES, WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA FOR NOW, AND WILL RE-
EVALUATE IN FUTURE UPDATES. ONCE THE LOW WEAKENS OR EXITS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH S-SW FLOW AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH SWELL OF WAVE PERIODS
AVERAGING 7 SECONDS FEEDS ONTO THE BEACHES TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WAVE GROUP SHOULD PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY IF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP.
LARGER BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS, POTENTIALLY EVEN APPROACHING 6
FEET, COULD BECOME POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES ON SATURDAY, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SPREADING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BY SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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