533
FXUS62 KILM 041753
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS STALLED LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTS TO
MOVE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MIXED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AS EVIDENT
BY MOST STATIONS HAVING A 3-5 DEGREE DROP IN DEWPOINT (LESS SO ALONG
THE GRAND STRAND). THIS DOESN'T BODE SUPER WELL FOR CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ON THIS HIGHLIGHTED DAY CHARACTERIZED BY OUTDOOR
CELEBRATIONS APLENTY BUT OUR 20-ISH POPS SEEM HARD TO ARGUE WITH.
LATER ON TONIGHT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OF COURSE
THE CENTER AND THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM ARE ONLY JUST NOW
BEHIND INVESTIGATED BY AIRCRAFT BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT RAIN SHOULD START TO AFFECT THE COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, SPREADING GRADUALLY INTO INLAND ZONES AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP INLAND LOCALES NEAR NORMAL
WHILST COASTAL LOCALES STAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE LOW.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH REMAINS OF LOW ON THE VERGE OF EXITING THE
LOCAL AREA TO THE NORTH. THE LOW TRAILS A WEAK TROUGH, THE REMAINS
OF A FRONT, WHICH ENDS UP LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE SEA BREEZE DOES MAKE THE BOUNDARY MUCH HARDER TO
FIND MON AND TUE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EACH DAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS STORMS MON/TUE AND EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE TYPICAL 30-40%, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER 2"
MON AND TUE EVEN AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
THE WEEK AS THE WEAK RIDGING IS SHUNTED SOUTH BY 5H TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT IT
WILL DROP 5H TEMPS ENOUGH TO INCREASE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NORTH OF 2" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT, THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE.
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STORM MOTION 5-10 KT
MON-WED WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN BEING AN ISSUE
IF THE SAME AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY STORMS MULTIPLE TIMES A DAY AND
DAY AFTER DAY. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION OUTSIDE OF THE AFD AT THIS
POINT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH REMAINS OF LOW ON THE VERGE OF EXITING THE
LOCAL AREA TO THE NORTH. THE LOW TRAILS A WEAK TROUGH, THE REMAINS
OF A FRONT, WHICH ENDS UP LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE SEA BREEZE DOES MAKE THE BOUNDARY MUCH HARDER TO
FIND MON AND TUE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EACH DAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS STORMS MON/TUE AND EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE TYPICAL 30-40%, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER 2"
MON AND TUE EVEN AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
THE WEEK AS THE WEAK RIDGING IS SHUNTED SOUTH BY 5H TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT IT
WILL DROP 5H TEMPS ENOUGH TO INCREASE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NORTH OF 2" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT, THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE.
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STORM MOTION 5-10 KT
MON-WED WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN BEING AN ISSUE
IF THE SAME AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY STORMS MULTIPLE TIMES A DAY AND
DAY AFTER DAY. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION OUTSIDE OF THE AFD AT THIS
POINT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE SCANT IN COVERAGE. LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE
COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER AND MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT WORST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
PLENTIFUL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE, TRANSIENT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME
RETURNS INLAND.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...
E TO NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH THE FORMER BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT HINGING UPON THE STILL UNKNOWN EVOLUTION (AND
THERMAL STRUCTURE) OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PERIOD AS THE FETCH LENGTH
GROWS A TAD LONGER. THE BIGGER STORY HOWEVER WILL BE THE
BUILDING OF THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. SCA COULD HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS SHIFT STARTING SATURDAY BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL HEADLINES SOON NEIGHBORS AND I HAVE
DECIDED TO WAIT ONE FORECAST CYCLE, IF NOT ADDRESS DURING ANY
EVENING UPDATE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
SUN BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN SETS UP MON-WED WITH BERMUDA HIGH
OFFSHORE AND INLAND TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON THEN DROPS BACK
TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE WEAKENING WINDS, STABILIZING AROUND 3 FT TUE AND WED. SEAS
WILL BE A MIX OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND A SOUTHEAST SWELL
WITH THE SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE LATER IN THE
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH SWELL OF WAVE PERIODS
AVERAGING 7 SECONDS FEEDS ONTO THE BEACHES TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WAVE GROUP SHOULD PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY IF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP.
LARGER BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS, POTENTIALLY EVEN APPROACHING 6
FEET, COULD BECOME POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES ON SATURDAY, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SPREADING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BY SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page