136
FXUS62 KILM 012332
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, BUT A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING THIS EVENING WILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOLLOWING BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO CONSISTENT WIND SHIFT YET, BUT
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM DARLINGTON
COUNTY, SC ALL THE WAY OVER TO PENDER COUNTY, NC.
HREF ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE SOME DECENT CLOUD
COVER ONGOING FROM DIURNAL CU AND OLD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS,
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (2500-3500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE), PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. DEWPOINTS STILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, AND HAVE EVEN PUSHED INTO 80 DEGREES
UNDER THE HOOD OF CONVECTION. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGING RIGHT AT 2.3" ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH 2.4" LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE. BUT AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE IN EVENTS LIKE THESE, SHEAR, HELICITY, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPEAR RATHER TAME, WHICH LIMITS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, ALONG WITH ELEVATED
DCAPE, ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR WET
MICROBURSTS. EVEN WITH SUBPAR SRH, AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
PLENTY OF CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LIGHTNING IN
AND OF ITSELF IS NOT PART OF SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA, IT'S STILL
IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT, AS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF HOUSE
FIRES STARTED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AT THE TIME OF THIS TYPING (2 PM EDT), SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE. BUT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD, ITS ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL START TO
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE, WHICH IS PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
A RESULT, CONVECTION COULD LOOK RATHER EXPLOSIVE ON RADAR ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS, AND SHOULD REALLY BECOME APPARENT BY 4-5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME "WORKED OVER"
(TEMPORARILY STABILIZED) BY LATE THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
PARAMETERS STILL IN PLACE, DON'T BE SURPRISED TO WAKE UP TO MORE
THUNDER SOMETIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE A SMALL
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO MAY FORM ALONG IT. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY GO DOWN WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE, BUT
IT MAINTAINS ENOUGH INFLUENCE FOR CONVECTION TO STICK AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE DAY (READ: SEABREEZE INTERACTION). DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY START TO INFILTRATE ALOFT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY HAPPENS LATER (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS).
BIG TIME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ON THE WAY. LOWS SATURDAY ONLY REACH
THE LOW-TO-MID 80S, SOME 6-10 DEGREES *BELOW* NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OFF THE COAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE SE NC COAST SATURDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTENDING
INLAND ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AS THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY THERE REGARDING HOW FAR THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL MAKE
IT. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT, WILL CONTINUE A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION
OF POPS THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THAT WILL BE
THE FIRST SUB-70 LOWS WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A MONTH (EXCEPT FOR THE
69 AT LBT ON 7/23). HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY AND
WILL FEEL QUITE REFRESHING WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK INTO A 65-70 RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A 500 MB RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE 4-CORNERS
STATES, ANOTHER WEAKER RIDGE OFF THE SE CONUS, AND A TROUGH IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BY
MIDWEEK, AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY BEYOND MONDAY, AND WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
POTENTIAL SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ANY DAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK OVERHEAD AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK,
AND WILL HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION, HOWEVER THESE FEATURES WON'T
BE WELL RESOLVED IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND, THEN GENERALLY RANGE FROM 70-75
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING, DO EXPECT COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING SUCH
THAT PROB GROUPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FROM 04-08Z MOST AREAS. AFT
08Z, CIGS AOA 1KT COULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY AFTERWARD. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AFT ABOUT 18Z LOOK
GREATEST SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BUT ONLY
LBT IS PROB FREE THIS ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND STORM STILL EXPECTED THROUGH AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EVEN AS THIS FRONT
WASHES OUT THEREAFTER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS,
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AREN'T QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS AT
2-3 FT INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE NC
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, AND WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KTS AT TIMES AS THESE WAVES DEVELOP. WINDS/SEAS MAY
FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT TIMES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...31
MARINE...IGB/CRM
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