048
FXUS62 KILM 021236
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
836 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT THE RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH
ON THE STRENGTH OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES VIA THE ACTUAL AIR
MASS AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME CLEARING MAY
OCCUR BY EARLY SUNDAY BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S. FINALLY REGARDING POPS GOOD NVA IS
NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY BUT STILL MAY GET
SHOWERS AND A BIT OF THUNDER LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR JACKSONVILLE, FL ON
SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME COASTAL ENHANCEMENT TO WIND SPEEDS.
THE COOL AIRMASS WILL EXTEND VERTICALLY TO AROUND 9000 FEET
ACCORDING TO GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD
DECAY AWAY TO ZERO FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER SMALL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE EVEN INLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MAY BE
ABLE TO UTILIZE THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SC COAST. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY, SO IT'S LIKELY THE FAIRLY HIGH POPS ADVERTISED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL DROP IN LATER UPDATES AS 00Z SATURDAY
MODELS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE NBM.
THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY: THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING IN GULF MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ALOFT.
SURFACE PARCELS MAY REMAIN TOO COOL AND DRY, BUT SMALL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD AGAIN FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 80S SUNDAY AND THE MID
80S ON MONDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TWO BIG 500 MB RIDGES WILL EXIST NEXT WEEK: ONE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BERMUDA WITH A SECOND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
US. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD WEAKEN TO JUST A SHEAR AXIS WHICH WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY.
THE OLD STALLED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BECOME WEAKER WITH TIME AS
SYNOPTIC WINDS BECOME GENERALLY E TO NE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
BOUNDARY. OUR AIRMASS SHOULD MOISTEN BACK UP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REBOUNDING TOWARD 2.0
INCHES. EVEN WITHOUT CLEAR TRIGGERS IT'S AN AIRMASS THAT SHOULD
YIELD DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NO CONVECTIVE
CAPPING EXPECTED. THE ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPEDE AIRMASS
CONVECTION THEN.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY COULD APPROACH 90 INLAND BY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COOLER AIR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LIKELY PUSH CIGS TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NC. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY SUNSET. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT DUE
TO LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM EACH
DAY. OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DISTORTED THIS
MORNING DUE TO CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOON ENOUGH
HOWEVER A SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO AN EVENTUAL 20-25 KNOTS...ON THE LOWER
END OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 TO
3-5 FEET. NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
JACKSONVILLE, FL VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF CAPE FEAR ON SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BELT
OF STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WEST OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY REACHING 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. IT'S POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE
WINDS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR.
THE FRONT SHOULD DECAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WEAKEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. FRIDAY'S 18Z GFS SHOWED A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
STREAM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG A REMNANT OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY
FRIDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN OR ECMWF RUNS. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-4 FEET, REMAINING LARGEST
NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/SHK
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