454
FXUS62 KILM 021823
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY BECOMING WARMER
AND MORE HUMID. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TODAY HAS BEEN A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE AND IT ISN'T TOO OFTEN I CAN
COMMENT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN AUGUST. ILM
AND A FEW OTHER COASTAL STATIONS STARTED THE MORNING OFF IN THE
LOWER 80S. THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WE HAVE GRADUALLY FALLEN INTO
THE UPPER 70S (THANKS, IN PART, TO ISOLATED SHOWERS). COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE JOINED BY DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT,
BRINGING DEW POINTS FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S THIS
EVENING.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, LOWS SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW
AND MID 60S, A WELCOME BREAK FOR DISGRUNTLED RESIDENTS AND AC UNITS
ALIKE. REMAINING COOL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S (THIS IS POSSIBLY A BIT TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS CAN REMAIN UNIFORM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY). MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S INLAND. NEAR THE COAST, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
THE NBM IS LAGGING SOME OF THE RECENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND A LARGE
PROPORTION OF THE HREF GUIDANCE. THIS LAG APPEARS IN BOTH DEWPOINTS
AND POP FOR SUNDAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COOLER DEWPOINTS. AS EXPECTED, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOWER IN THIS REGIME AND WHILE NBM SUGGESTS A 60% POP FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS, I HAVE COMPROMISED WHAT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BY
MAINTAINING POPS AROUND 30% NEAR THE GRAND STRAND AND IN GEORGETOWN
AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
GRAND STRAND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE FL-GA LINE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OFF THE SC COAST MONDAY AND DRIFT NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMALS. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ABOVE 600 MB, BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER UPGLIDE OVER THE
FRONTAL ZONE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...ONE OVER THE SW US AND ONE OFF THE SE
COAST...WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
WEAKEN BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE MS VALLEY TROUGH ALSO WEAKENS AND
LIFTS. THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH STALLED OVER NORTHERN FL AND OFF THE
SE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE WITH TIME.
NE TO ENE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MINIMIZING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. HOWEVER SW WINDS IN THE 800-300 MB LAYER
WILL TRANSPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINTAINING HEALTHY PWAT VALUES AND THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST ABOUT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COOLER AIR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LIKELY PUSH CIGS TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NC. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY SUNSET. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT DUE
TO LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM EACH
DAY. OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED,
PRIMARILY FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZES TONIGHT, GUSTS COULD TOP-OUT
AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR THE SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR MARINE ZONE AS
WELL. THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THESE GUSTS WILL BE OVERSHADOWED BY
THE STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEA STATE. SHOWERS REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BUT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND
3-5 FEET COULD STILL POSE SOME ISSUES FOR BOATERS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL TRAFFIC ON A WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST, AND AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC
COAST MONDAY AND MOVE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THIS WOULD ENHANCE
THE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NE FLOW ON MONDAY, AND ELEVATE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH DISPLACED TO THE NE BY WED THAT IT WILL HAVE A
NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, HOWEVER A NE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...TRA/CRM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/CRM
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