631
FXUS62 KILM 030549
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
149 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR AUGUST
TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL
LATER IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF INSTABILITY POINTS
SOUTH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF LOW CHANCE
POPS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING POPS INCREASE MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST VERY DELIBERATE IN NATURE AND MAINLY OFFSHORE VIA
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG A FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ALMOST IN LOCK STEP WITH THIS MORNINGS VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE OLD COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE FL-GA STATE LINE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST
THE AIRMASS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK TOWARD
70 EVEN INLAND BY TUESDAY.
A 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AS A RIDGE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. WITH LOW LEVEL PARCELS OVER LAND LIKELY REMAINING
STABLE (OR AT BEST WEAKLY UNSTABLE) ANY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS MAY HAVE
TO COME FROM MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ANY PASSING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. NBM POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES SEEM AWFULLY HIGH
RELATIVE TO THE 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY GFS. THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS
A LITTLE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN POTENTIAL OWING TO ITS HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER BY TUESDAY, BUT EVEN IT IS
DRIER THAN THE NBM.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON TUESDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONFIDENCE HAS FALLEN A WITH THE LATE-WEEK FORECAST AS THE 18Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY GFS PLUS A FAIR NUMBER OF THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN, THE 500 MB BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL BECOME A MORE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PUSH ANY DEVELOPING CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LAND.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A
BREAK IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ALSO OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP THE 850-500 MB LAYER VERY HUMID OVER THE CAROLINAS, AND
GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ONSHORE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY REMAINING 2.0 INCHES
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, WE'LL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR
HYBRID LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD RANGE FROM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR TWO LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
MYRTLES...CONFIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH SEEMINGLY LOWER VALUES
TO THE SOUTH. THE HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 3 PM VIA
THE SEAS JUST ABOVE SIX FEET. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE
ADVISORY TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON THE WINDS DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY
BUT CONFIDENCE/COLLABORATION JUST NOT THERE AT THIS TIME. LONG STORY
SHORT SEAS 3-6 FEET AND WINDS FROM THE NE 15-20 KNOTS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN STALLED MONDAY NEAR THE FL-GA STATE LINE, EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN NC AND
BERMUDA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM
FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WHATEVER MIGHT DEVELOP FROM
THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TOO FAR EAST FOR MORE THAN A SMALL UPTICK
IN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ALONG OUR PORTION OF THE CAROLINA COAST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A GROWING NUMBER OF MODELS NOW SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY 200-300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. IF
THIS SECOND LOW WERE TO DEVELOP STEERING FLOW WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING IT NORTHWESTWARD WITH WIND/WAVE IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY WHEN WINDS COULD APPROACH 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. ANY POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH THE SECOND LOW WOULD BEGIN ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/SHK
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