336
FXUS62 KILM 031756
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR AUGUST TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
TOWARD NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK. PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WORK THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND. THESE
ECHOES HAVE NOT BEEN UNIFORMLY PRECIPITATING IN CHS'S AREA AND THEIR
BATTLE AGAINST THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH IS A LOSING ONE. IF ANY RAIN
MANAGES TO FIGHT THROUGH THE EXPANSIVE DRY LAYER, EXPECT ONLY A
BRIEF DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A REFRESHING REPRIEVE FROM THE MULTI-MONTH
TREND OF HUMIDITY AND SWELTERING HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TONIGHT, EXPECT A
SIMILAR FORECAST TO LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH HELP
FROM A LIGHT NE WIND.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL SIGNAL THE GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS, THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH SUNSHINE ON MONDAY MORNING, BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CRISP DEW POINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A FANTASTIC START
TO THE WORK WEEK.
TRENDS FOR CONTROLLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE WEAKER AND
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS THE DEPTH OF SATURATIONS REMAINS
LIMITED BY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. COASTAL NORTHEASTERN SC APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS, BUT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEEN WEAK,
SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS REMAINED WELL
INLAND, EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS, AND THIS AXIS REMAINS
GENERALLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY.
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER THAN SUNDAY: LOW TO MID 80S. EARLY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE THESE TEMPERATURES (I.E. UPPER
70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT SEE
RAIN).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE KEY PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC KEEPING A "COLD" AIR DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND A SHARPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
HOLD NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH WEST OF THE
AREA EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE AND
RESULT IN PWATS RETURNING TO AROUND AND PERHAPS ABOVE 2" ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SO FAR SOUTH, IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW
MUCH PRECIP WE MAY SEE DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW OVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD KEEP THESE IMPULSES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT,
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED WHICH MAY BRING ENHANCED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, BUT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE
MAIN PRECIP ZONE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND
HIGHLY ON THE TROUGH AXIS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE, SO RAIN CHANCES
MAY INCREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE UPDATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THIS
"COLD" AIR DAMMING SETUP, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND TUESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONFIDENCE DECREASES GOING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A STRONG MID-UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHARP AND MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK
CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS
TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT IN PLACE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHILE THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO IMPART LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER AND
MAY DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION, PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ALOFT
SHOULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
SOMETHING TO NOTE HERE IS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KEEPING
DEW POINTS AT MORE "COMFORTABLE" LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S INSTEAD OF THE MID-UPPER 70S SEEN IN JULY. WITH AIR AND
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EACH OTHER THIS WEEK, THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AT THE
WORST. IN ADDITION, WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE IS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE SHOULD
KEEP DAYTIME POP-UP ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED UNLESS A WELL-TIMED
SHORTWAVE CAN BRING RISING MOTION INTO PLAY AT THE RIGHT TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON, OR THE STALLED FRONT DRIFTS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST. THEREFORE, WHILE NBM-BASED POPS ARE IN THE LIKELY
RANGE DAILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, THESE MAY NEED TO COME DOWN IN
FUTURE UPDATES AS THE SURFACE PATTERN IS JUST NOT AS SUPPORTIVE
FOR SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON POP-UP CONVECTION IN THE TYPICALLY-
FAVORED ZONES (SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH), WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY BECOME QUITE ACTIVE IN THIS SETUP IF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE WAS NOT IN PLACE. INSTEAD, FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY DEPEND ON PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
MAY OCCUR DURING ATYPICAL TIMES, SUCH AS OVERNIGHT OR IN THE
EARLY MORNING.
SOMETHING ELSE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE GFS'S INSISTENCE ON A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND
NEARING THE NC COAST AROUND OR ON AUGUST 8, A SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN
SHOWN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS, BUT GENERALLY LACKS SUPPORT FROM OTHER
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. NEVERTHELESS, THE 12Z
CMC IS SHOWING A SHIFT TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND NHC HAS
RECENTLY OUTLOOKED A 20% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FOR MID-LATE WEEK. THUS, THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, BUT ONE THAT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR CHANGES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOISTURE
GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, IT WOULD BE NEAR THE GRAND STRAND. DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT THE WORST, LIKELY TOO
LIGHT TO EVEN BRING TERMINALS BELOW VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH
RETURNING MOISTURE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AND SO TOO WILL THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO POWER THROUGH THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST HAVE SEPARATED ENOUGH TO SEE WINDS RETURN TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND SEAS 3-5 FEET. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LOWER THE SCA, BUT IS BY
NO MEANS COMFORTABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT. AN ISOLATED GUST TO 25 KNOTS
IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NC NEARSHORE WATERS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
GRADUAL, BUT CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SEAS 3-5 FEET TONIGHT,
SETTLING TO 2-4 FEET ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TENDING TOWARDS
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD
AROUND 10-15 KTS UNLESS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW FORMS ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT AND APPROACHES THE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK
(CURRENTLY A VERY-LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO). SEAS GENERALLY HOLD
AROUND 2-4 FT, WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC, FOLLOWED BY WEAK WIND WAVES
AND A SUBTLE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 1-2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8
SEC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page