881
FXUS62 KILM 040030
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR AUGUST TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
TOWARD NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK. PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
MODELS WANT TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY AIR FUNNELING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THRU THE NIGHT. MAY SEE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
WEST THRU SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE ILM SC CWA DURING THIS EVENING
AND MAY CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP. OTHERWISE, SOME TWEAKING OF
HRLY SKY, POP AND T/TD THRU THE NIGHT BUT NO CATEGORY CHANGES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WORK THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND.
THESE ECHOES HAVE NOT BEEN UNIFORMLY PRECIPITATING IN CHS'S
AREA AND THEIR BATTLE AGAINST THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH IS A
LOSING ONE. IF ANY RAIN MANAGES TO FIGHT THROUGH THE EXPANSIVE
DRY LAYER, EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A REFRESHING REPRIEVE FROM THE
MULTI-MONTH TREND OF HUMIDITY AND SWELTERING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
TONIGHT, EXPECT A SIMILAR FORECAST TO LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH HELP FROM A LIGHT NE WIND.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL SIGNAL THE GRADUAL RETURN OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS,
THERE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH SUNSHINE ON MONDAY MORNING, BUT
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CRISP DEW POINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
FANTASTIC START TO THE WORK WEEK.
TRENDS FOR CONTROLLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
WEAKER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS THE DEPTH OF
SATURATIONS REMAINS LIMITED BY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. COASTAL
NORTHEASTERN SC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS, BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEEN WEAK, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS REMAINED WELL INLAND, EAST OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS, AND THIS AXIS REMAINS GENERALLY STATIONARY ON
MONDAY.
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER THAN SUNDAY: LOW TO MID 80S. EARLY CLOUDS
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE THESE TEMPERATURES
(I.E. UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THAT SEE RAIN).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE KEY PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC KEEPING A "COLD" AIR DAMMING
WEDGE IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND A SHARPENING MID-
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HOLD NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER
VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA EXERTS AN
INCREASING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE AND RESULT IN PWATS
RETURNING TO AROUND AND PERHAPS ABOVE 2" ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SO FAR SOUTH, IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE MAY SEE DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD KEEP THESE IMPULSES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON
TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT, YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED WHICH MAY BRING ENHANCED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, BUT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE
MAIN PRECIP ZONE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TROUGH AXIS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE, SO
RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER
THIS "COLD" AIR DAMMING SETUP, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND TUESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONFIDENCE DECREASES GOING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A STRONG MID-UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHARP AND MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK
CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS
TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT IN PLACE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHILE THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO IMPART LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER AND
MAY DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION, PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ALOFT
SHOULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
SOMETHING TO NOTE HERE IS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KEEPING
DEW POINTS AT MORE "COMFORTABLE" LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S INSTEAD OF THE MID-UPPER 70S SEEN IN JULY. WITH AIR AND
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EACH OTHER THIS WEEK, THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AT THE
WORST. IN ADDITION, WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE IS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE SHOULD
KEEP DAYTIME POP-UP ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED UNLESS A WELL-TIMED
SHORTWAVE CAN BRING RISING MOTION INTO PLAY AT THE RIGHT TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON, OR THE STALLED FRONT DRIFTS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST. THEREFORE, WHILE NBM-BASED POPS ARE IN THE LIKELY
RANGE DAILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, THESE MAY NEED TO COME DOWN IN
FUTURE UPDATES AS THE SURFACE PATTERN IS JUST NOT AS SUPPORTIVE
FOR SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON POP-UP CONVECTION IN THE TYPICALLY-
FAVORED ZONES (SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH), WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY BECOME QUITE ACTIVE IN THIS SETUP IF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE WAS NOT IN PLACE. INSTEAD, FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY DEPEND ON PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
MAY OCCUR DURING ATYPICAL TIMES, SUCH AS OVERNIGHT OR IN THE
EARLY MORNING.
SOMETHING ELSE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE GFS'S INSISTENCE ON A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND NEARING THE NC COAST AROUND OR ON AUGUST 8, A
SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS, BUT
GENERALLY LACKS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. NEVERTHELESS, THE 12Z CMC IS SHOWING A SHIFT
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND NHC HAS RECENTLY OUTLOOKED A 20%
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOR MID-LATE WEEK. THUS, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO, BUT ONE THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR CHANGES IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THIS 24 HR
FCST PERIOD. STRATOCU FROM OFF THE OCEAN WITHIN LOW LEVEL NE-ENE
FLOW AND ALTOCU AND CIRRUS WITHIN SW-WSW FLOW ALOFT, WILL BOTH
DOMINATE WITH VFR CEILINGS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, LATE MON AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE IS A SHOT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
MYR/CRE AND FLO AS DEEPER MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS. HELD OFF MENTIONING IN THE TAFS THEMSELVES BUT
WARRANTS A MENTION HERE. WINDS GENERALLY NE 4 TO 8 KT TONIGHT
AND NE-E AROUND 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT MON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH RETURNING MOISTURE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AND SO TOO WILL
THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO POWER THROUGH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAVE SEPARATED ENOUGH TO SEE WINDS
RETURN TO 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
LOWER THE SCA, BUT IS BY NO MEANS COMFORTABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT.
AN ISOLATED GUST TO 25 KNOTS IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NC
NEARSHORE WATERS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE GRADUAL, BUT CONSISTENT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. SEAS 3-5 FEET TONIGHT, SETTLING TO 2-4 FEET
ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
TENDING TOWARDS NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY.
SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD AROUND 10-15 KTS UNLESS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL LOW FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK (CURRENTLY A VERY-LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO). SEAS GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 2-4 FT, WITH EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS BEING THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR WITH A PERIOD
OF 8-9 SEC, FOLLOWED BY WEAK WIND WAVES AND A SUBTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 1-2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8 SEC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/ABW
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