152
FXUS62 KILM 041027
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BELOW NORMAL FOR AUGUST TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OR WEAK SHORTWAVE FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE
IMPETUS FOR THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON BETTER FORCING FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON LOWER CONFIDENCE CLOUD COVER FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S. TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE MAINLY UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH CENTERED TO OUR WEST
WITH SMALL PULSES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. THIS PAIRED
WITH RECOVERING MOISTURE WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR SOUTH, SO WE WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAYS OF LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE BOARD
BUT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WHILE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK
MAY DRAG THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BACK NORTH. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO REFLECT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF FOLLOWING
THE SEA BREEZE, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST. NBM POPS MAY
BE TOO HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD AS DOMINANT SURFACE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF
THE NE/ENE PAIRED WITH LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY.
CARRYING OVER MESSAGING OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
MID/LATE WEEK. NHC HAS UPGRADED THE AREA OF INTEREST OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST TO A 30% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AS OF 2AM,
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOME FORM OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE AREA AND TRAVELING UP THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE OUTCOME WITH FURTHER FORECAST
UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR TWO ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD POINTS SOUTH AND EAST VIA BETTER FORCING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NE WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
EARLIER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
PERSISTENT PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SIX FEET WITH A HEALTHY RANGE OF 3-5 FEET AND SIMILAR TO THE
WIND FORECAST TREND DOWNWARD BY TUESDAY AM AS WELL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. NE WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page