529
FXUS62 KILM 041839
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW RETURN OF HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE WEEK. PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL AND GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DOWN THROUGH
THE INLAND CAROLINAS AS TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED TONIGHT INTO
TUES JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT A BIT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME COASTAL RAIN SHOWERS,
BUT THE LIFT REMAINS STRONGEST ACROSS SC WHERE WARMER AND
MOISTER WINDS ALOFT WERE RUNNING OVER THE COOLER NE FLOW AT THE
SFC COMBINE WITH BETTER LIFT. OVERALL, LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AT TIMES, BUT LIMITED, MAINLY PATCHY LIGHTER RAIN.
THE BEST CHC OF ANY STRONGER PCP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDES BETTER SUPPORT AND LIFT.
BETTER FORCING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS, WILL PRODUCE A GREATER CHC OF PCP. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW 70 AGAIN,
INLAND OF THE COAST AND HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE WEDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, KEEPING EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
IN THE PICTURE. ALOFT, A MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE
BEING PINCHED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
RETROGRADING WESTWARD. AS THIS TROUGH DRIFTS EASTWARD, A STREAM OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. IT APPEARS THE
CAPE FEAR AREA SHOULD STAY LARGELY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN MAY STREAM IN AT TIMES BEFORE DRYING OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THIS PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT AND BRING LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NHC MAINTAINS A 30% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, BUT GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE TOOLS
REMAIN SKEPTICAL IN A BONAFIDE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE. INSTEAD, GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LONG-STANDING LOW-LEVEL
WEDGE IT HAS IMPARTED OVER THE EASTERN US, WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
IS THE STALLED FRONT SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS
LIFTED OVER TOP OF THE WEDGE. IN ADDITION, BREEZY WINDS AND ROUGH
SURF WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST
THE WEDGE.
STARTING ON THURSDAY, WE MAY BEGIN SEEING PERIODS OF RAIN SHIFTING
ONSHORE AS A RESULT OF THE STALLED FRONT DRAWING CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DESPITE PWATS BEING AROUND OR ABOVE 2", THE NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND LIMIT RAINFALL
RATES. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT
AND ANY LOW ALONG THE FRONT, WE MAY SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY NEAR THE COAST
AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE STRENGTHENS. WHETHER THIS STALLED FRONT AND
LOW MOVE INLAND OR STAY NEAR THE COAST AND WASH OUT WITH TIME IS
STILL IN QUESTION, BUT GUIDANCE TOOLS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND DISRUPT
THE PATTERN, BUT HOW THAT MIGHT PLAY OUT CARRIES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN OR A SHOWER OR TWO
ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, MAINLY ACROSS SC TERMINALS
OR COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS UP TO 5 FT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY FROM 3 TO
5 FT DOWN TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK, BUT THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL SYSTEM
FORMATION REMAINS 30%. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE DUE TO THE LONG FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, PROVIDING AN
ENERLY 2-3 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8-9 SEC WHILE A 1-2 FT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES AROUND THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA
HIGH, WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SEC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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