602
FXUS62 KILM 051041
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH RIDGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT COULD MOVE
CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PATTERN IS SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM A RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW TO ONE THAT IS SEEING WINDS MORE FROM THE EAST AND
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD BUT THE PACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. GUIDANCE STILL
APPEARS TOO HIGH WITH POPS BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN REALITY THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE MOISTURE WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST WITH ONE MORE DAY OF UPPER 60S WELL INLAND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SIT TO OUR WEST WITH RIDGING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. ALOFT
A TROUGH WILL PUSH UP AGAINST OUR AREA BUT FAIL TO MAKE IT THROUGH
LEAVING US WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE COAST ~2-2.5"
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INLAND BUT STILL 1-1.5"+. RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR WED SHOULD BE LARGELY A QUARTER OR LESS BUT SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL COULD SET UP IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN
NE SC WHERE WE COULD SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS 0.5-0.75". HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY WITH AROUND A THIRD TO HALF AN INCH
GENERALLY, MAXIMIZED AWAY FROM THE COAST AND EAST OF I-95. TIMING
FOR THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAINLY BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STRONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH NOT WITH MUCH INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE. AS OF 2AM THE NHC HAS A
MAJORITY OF OUR COASTAL WATERS IN A 30% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION MID/LATE WEEK. IRONICALLY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE BACKED OFF WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF OUR COAST, WHILE
OTHER MODELS REMAIN NONCOMMITTAL WITH UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH LOOKS TO
ELONGATE AND START TO INCH TOWARDS THE COAST, CREATING WHAT ALMOST
LOOKS LIKE A COASTAL TROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY, I'VE INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
CASE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST IT'S HARD TO SAY WHEN WE WON'T HAVE RAIN CHANCES
AT THIS TIME, BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A REIGNITING OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT MAY DECREASE COVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT ACROSS THE MYRTLES BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE DEPARTURE FROM STRAIGHT
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN FITS AND STARTS THE OVERALL TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WHICH OFFERS A FEW
MORE CHALLENGES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD
TO MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NE TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
EMPHASIZED IN TIME AS THE PATTERN METHODICALLY SHIFTS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH AND PERHAPS SOME COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FLOW
MAY BECOME MORE ONSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS 2-3 FT INCREASING TO 3-4
FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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