758
FXUS62 KILM 051837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH RIDGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WILL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNUSUAL AUGUST WEDGE TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATOP THE
SHALLOW LAYER OF E TO NE WINDS WILL BE WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ADMITTEDLY ARE HARD TO TIME. THE SE TO NW
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE MEANING THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN STORMS OVER MOST NC ZONES. A
CLUSTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN A SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE
UPON THE AREA TONIGHT MEANING RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER AND NOT SHOW
THE DIURNAL DIE OFF NORMAL TO THIS TIME OF YEAR (THOUGH EVEN SC'S
INSTABILITY WILL WANE). THE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE BUT TAPER
HEADING IN WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES SHY
OF CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH
BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE
MID TO UPPER RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA WILL PUSH AGAINST THIS TROUGH
MAINTAINING DEEP SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE COAST. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AS TROUGH/WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SFC TO THE NE
THROUGH THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. THEREFORE, THE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC FLOW LATE WED SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURS EVE. PCP WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 2.25 INCHES WILL GET PUSHED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT INTO THURS. OVERALL, BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTENT FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. OVERALL, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FORMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FINALLY SHIFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP WITH ATLANTIC
HIGH BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
A 594 RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TAKING RESIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE MORE TYPICAL LOCALIZED AFTN
CONVECTION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABOVE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF NE WINDS THERE WILL BE A DEEP LAYER
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL
COVERAGE. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (THE LATTER OF
WHICH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN ZONES) CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN MVFR. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SO SHOWERS WILL NOT
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AS THEY OFTEN DO THIS TIME OF YEAR
BASICALLY CALLING FOR AT LEAST PROB30S FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. RAIN MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE INTRODUCED AS A FM
AT SOME TERMINALS STARTING TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH/LOW TO THE EAST POSSIBLY DEVELOPS INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFFECTING THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
BRINGING ATYPICAL ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT VEER FROM NE TO E. SEAS WILL NOT BE OVERLY LARGE BUT THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF A COMPLEX SPECTRUM OF PERIODS. THE WIND CHOP WILL
BE PRESENT AS ALWAYS BUT THE ABATING E TO NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
WHILE DROPPING FROM 9-10 SECONDS DOWN TO 8 SECONDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UP AROUND 15 KTS AS TROUGH POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH/LOW PUSHES ONSHORE WITH
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE SE TO S WINDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SHOULD WEAKEN TO 5 TO 10 KT. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS NEAR 3 FT WED NIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT AND POSSIBLE UP TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
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