069
FXUS62 KILM 060627
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
227 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH THE COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
AND RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT UNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST. WE FINALLY GOT A GOOD ROUND OF
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY MORNING EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THIS. EXPECT MORE OF THE
SAME TODAY WITH MORE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED ACTIVITY EARLY ON SHIFTING
WEST AND LEADING TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION
INTO ROBESON COUNTY IN NC. POPS ARE HIGH...CATEGORICAL FOR A FEW
HOURS AND OVERALL FINALLY SEEM REASONABLE. DID CONTEMPLATE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE MORE FAVORED AREAS AS SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING FIVE PLUS INCHES BY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISN'T THERE AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE MAY DEVELOP SOME FORM OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
IT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. AS OF 2AM THE NHC HAS A MAJORITY OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS IN A 40% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION LATE
WEEK/THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THE FRIDAY TIME PERIOD SOME MODELS
HAVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHILE SOME JUST SOME TROUGHING, BUT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES ARE
SIMILAR DAY TO DAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAX RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST OF I-95. LOWER CHANCES PERSIST AT NIGHT BUT
JUST AT THE COAST FROM SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ONSHORE. PWATS WILL BE
HIGHEST AT THE COAST ~2-2.5" WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INLAND BUT
STILL 1-1.5"+. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.5" OR LOWER DAY
TO DAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SEE SHORT TERM FOR THE MOST RECENT ADVISORY (2AM) REGARDING THE
AREA OF INTEREST OFF OUR COAST. MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME HAS ANY OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING
GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM US THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RIDGE WE'VE HAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LOOKING TO BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE PRESENCE OF THIS HIGH MAY
SERVE TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR AND PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH 00Z/07 ACROSS
SE NC AND NE SC, MAINLY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS. SHOULD
START OUT MAINLY VFR (ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM KFLO) AS EARLIER
RAIN/LOW CLOUDS SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, MORE SHOWERS/ISO STORMS AND
LOW CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR BUT POSSIBLY IFR) LOOK TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH/LOW TO THE EAST POSSIBLY DEVELOPS INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFFECTING THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH EAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-3 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ~15 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS PERHAPS WELL OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK THOUGH THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO IT'S PATH
AND STRENGTH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FLOW
MAY BECOME MORE ONSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT, HIGHEST
FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page