372
FXUS62 KILM 062322
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER SHOULD RETURN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL WILL WARMUP
INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS BUT DID ADJUST
RAIN CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR/MODEL TRENDS. UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
WV SHOWS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW IN THE MID LEVELS AND
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INC IN COVERAGE AREA-WIDE.
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW THUS FAR BUT WITH 2500 J/KG
LIGHTNING SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH INCITES A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
THIS HELPS THE HIGH TO WEDGE EVEN MORE STRONGLY INTO THE CAROLINAS
AS WELL AS WEAKEN/BACK FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUTTING DOWN ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE OVERRUNNING THAT'S BEEN IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE ELEVATED RAIN COVERAGE TO MORE
SEASONABLY NORMAL VALUES ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE COAST MAY STILL SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE. IN BETWEEN, THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
NORMAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS GIVING US GREATER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS,SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS SFC
HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FORM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD SHIFT
BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST WHILE STILL MAINTAINING A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE WEAK LOW OR WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW TOWARD THE SE COAST, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK OFF TO THE N-NE BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST AND FOLLOWING ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND POSSIBLY DEEPENING. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA
AS OF LATEST FORECAST AND NHC. BUT, THE LINGERING TROUGH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED THROUGH FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. ALSO WILL LEAVE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PCP WATER WITH
CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF I-95 AND UP TO 2 INCHES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON FRI.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS HIGH STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY SAT
MORNING, PCP WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA WILL BE DOWN TO 1.5
INLAND AND 1.7 CLOSER TO THE COAST IN A CONTINUED N-NE FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE DRIER, SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. TEMPS WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS THURS AND FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 70
AND HIGHS FRI BETWEEN 80 AND 85 MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE WELL
OFFSHORE AS TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH
AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO TURN FROM N-NE TO MORE EASTERLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH.
DRIER AIR NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SAT WILL GIVE A TIGHTER
MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE LEAVING BEST CHC OF CONVECTION
OVER THE SC COAST BUT AS WE MOVE INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH
BRINGING A RETURN TO MOISTURE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA INITIALLY INTO SUN. A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES OVER COASTAL SC
AND DOWN AS LOW AS 1.4 INCHES WEST AND NORTH OF I-95 SAT INTO
SUN.
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL ARRIVE MON
THROUGH WED WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP WITH
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WILL ALSO SEE MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL SHWR AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MUCH OF THE 00Z PERIOD DUE TO A
CONTINUATION OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING LOW-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGHING OVER AND/OR SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN CAUSE OF RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE FROM
LOW CIGS, GENERALLY TO MVFR LEVELS, ALTHOUGH COULD BE DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM (ESPECIALLY INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT).
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES AS WELL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS,
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH EAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS
AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-3 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BUT INCREASE A BIT THURS NIGHT INTO FRI BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRI MAY DEVELOP AS IT
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NORTHEAST
SWELLS POSSIBLY INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR LATEST
UPDATES OR INFO ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE NHC AT HURRICANES.GOV. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NE FLOW WILL
THEREFORE SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH.
MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH TAKES RESIDENCE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
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