663
FXUS62 KILM 071048
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER SHOULD RETURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL WILL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS
LEADING TO A LARGE BANK OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN STUBBORN
THROUGHOUT TODAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THEY WILL LIFT A BIT
DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY, IF NOT OVERCAST. COASTAL
COUNTIES WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF STRATUS BREAKING UP MIDDAY.
A PWAT GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, WITH 2+ INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND ~1.6" ALONG I-95. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO WESTERN NC WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING. MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WORK ADEQUATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A
CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST
THROUGH PERHAPS A MAJORITY OF THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE NE. INLAND, THE RIDGING HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRIER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST EXCEPT FOR IN THE AFTERNOONS
WHERE WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTER RAIN IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AS THAT DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
POOL IN, BUT FRIDAY SHOULD SEE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN OR
LOWER WITH HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SIT TO OUR WEST, PERHAPS LOSING SOME STEAM INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO ONSHORE WITH RECOVERING
MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RETURNING INTO THE 90S. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH CEILINGS ~500FT OR LESS, DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND POTENTIALLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY
(16/17Z) FOR INLAND TERMINALS NEAR I-95. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND
TERMINALS REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER THROUGHOUT 12Z TAF PERIOD. LESS
CONFIDENCE AT COASTAL SITES, WHERE THE CLOUD DECK IS MORE LIKELY
TO BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUB-VFR STRATUS
REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES/COVERAGE INLAND. WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS,
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN TO
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. SEAS 2-3 FT, PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO E
SWELL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE MAY BE OFF THE NC
COAST FRIDAY WHERE IT COULD LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING TO
THE NE OUT TO SEA. NE WINDS ~10-15 KTS WITH LIGHTER ~10 KT EASTERLY
FLOW MONDAY AS THE PG RELAXES SOME. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME
4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO/LEW
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