621
FXUS62 KILM 072326
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
726 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING COOLER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE WEDGE OF COOLER
AIR SHOULD START TO BREAK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, STARTING A
WARMING TREND.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS. MOST
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE SC
COAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR AUGUST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE AREAS FROM THE NNE, MUCH MORE
TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. LIGHT ONSHORE/NE FLOW WILL BE OVERRUN BY
A DEEP LAYER OF SWRLY FLOW LEADING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
AT LEAST TONIGHT. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
NORMALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WOULD IMPLY THAT MANY
OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE DUE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. DIDN'T WANT TO GO TOO
MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BEFORE MOISTURE IS VERY
DEEP AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY LEADING
TO FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY AFTER YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS LINGER.
THE SLOW MOVING VORT MAX CROSSES THE AREA TOMORROW. THE
RESULTING DISRUPTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE THE SENSE
OF OVERRUNNING FOR LESS PRECIP COVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
CLOUDS REMAINING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY SHORTAGE
CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE
OBX (OR PERHAPS CAPE LOOKOUT) BY FRIDAY EVENING. WHATEVER CONVECTION
THAT SPAWNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
DEBRIS CLOUDS BEHIND OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND, LOWER
70S AT THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC,
WHILE THE CAD WEDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE. THE CAD RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY, BRINGING A
LITTLE MORE DRY AIR IN ALOFT. HOWEVER, THIS DOESN'T DO MUCH TO
SILENCE LOCAL RAIN MAKERS LIKE THE SEABREEZE. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY ALL DAY LONG, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION SHOULD LESSEN IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ONLY
THING TO NOTE IS A STALLED OUT FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MAY TRY TO SPIN
UP MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST, WHICH MAY TRY TO SNEAK SOME INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TOWARDS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT SHAKY ON
THIS THOUGH, AND THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE.
EITHER WAY, CAD WEDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HOLD ON THE AREA,
LEADING TO NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THINGS MAY START TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY, AS A COUPLE OF STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER PLAINS REGIONS
START TO PUSH CLOSER INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FRONTS LOOK TO
PROVIDE THE PUSH NEEDED TO BREAK UP THE WEDGE. FRONTS DON'T GET
TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO NOT
MUCH CHANGES IN THE WAY OF DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD THE PUSH
THERE). WHAT DOES CHANGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL START
TO TREND UPWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z FRI AS A SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS REGARDING CIGS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY THINK MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL DOMINATE BUT LIFR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, DUE TO EITHER SPOTTY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, OR CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WEDGE BRINGING LOW
CEILINGS. MORE OF THE SAME IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THE WEDGE MAY START TO BREAK BY TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF NEAR NE WINDS WILL
BE LOCKED IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS A RESULT OF A STRONG, COOL
SEASON-LIKE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WEDGING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS (AND BEYOND).
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS VEER
SLIGHTLY EASTERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE APPARENT VEERING
TO THE SOUTH KICKS IN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS THE WEDGE MAY
FINALLY START TO BREAK (NO CHANGES IN THE WIND SPEED). SEAS AT 1-3
FT FALL SLIGHTLY TO 1-2 FT BY TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MBB/IGB
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