813
FXUS62 KILM 251049
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY OF AUGUST. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
MAY BRING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATE THAT THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN A SPECIAL TREAT OF DRY AIR FOR
LATE AUGUST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, REACHING COASTAL AREAS AROUND PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
A GUSTY DOWNBURST, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INLAND AREAS
WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUSTAIN ANY MENTIONABLE POPS. THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, BUT THIS
INITIAL SLOW MOVEMENT COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEW POINTS WILL CRASH AS DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES EASTWARD. COOLER
AIR WILL FOLLOW, IF NOT A LITTLE DELAYED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FEEL REFRESHING; LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DUE TO SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN US AS A HEALTHY
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER MHX AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY OF 581 DAM AND +4C, RESPECTIVELY, ARE BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WEBPAGE. THIS NEW AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WILL BE
VERY REFRESHING WITH INLAND DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE THROUGH
THE 50S.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE 80S, THE
BIG CHANGE WILL BE NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH SHOULD RUN WELL BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST. TUESDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM 60-
65 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
SHOULD RUN ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES COOLER WITH AREAS WEST OF I-95
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 3-
4. THIS IS OUR FIRST SIGN THAT YES, THE SEASONS WILL SOON BE
CHANGING!
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST, REFRESHED BY THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO THE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. ENSEMBLE BLENDS FROM YESTERDAY
HAVE INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO 20-40 PERCENT, HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THAT AT THIS TIME THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONNECTION MADE TO MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM EITHER THE
ATLANTIC OR GULF; INSTEAD THIS APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND,
CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER WITH REGARD TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN AMONG
THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF BECOME RATHER LARGE BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
20-40 PERCENT SUNDAY REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
INFLUENCE MORE THAN CONFIDENCE WITH ANY SPECIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING. AT ANY RATE, LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
NORTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. ALL COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, PROLONGING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS
AFTER INSTABILITY IS LARGELY DEPLETED. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS AND IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE, POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE SEABREEZE WILL STILL DO ITS THING AND TURN WIND DIRECTIONS
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME REESTABLISHED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN SPEEDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A
SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS (15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK SHOULD CONSIST OF A LONG PERIOD E
SWELL OVERLAID WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND CHOP. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
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