413
FXUS62 KILM 251745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT HERALDING COOLER, DRIER
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MAY
BRING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NW. CAMS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SPARKS CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WHILE MOST INLAND PLACES
REMAIN DRY AS 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY,
STILL SLIGHTLY RARE IN AUGUST, WILL PERHAPS SLOW THE NORMAL DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF RADAR RETURNS EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. THE WRF
HANGING ONTO MODERATE CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z APPEARS WAY OVERDONE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION. AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DIP BELOW 70 TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY BUT THE LOWERED
DEWPOINTS WILL OFFER A LESS "AUGUSTY" FEEL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. PWATS WILL DROP TO <1" BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRY,
COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A
BIT TOO HIGH FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MIDNIGHT ONWARDS, SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED LOWS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CALMER CONDITIONS ALBEIT WITH
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE CLOUDS I HAVEN'T INCORPORATED OUR TYPICAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WOULD DROP COLDER SPOTS 5-10 DEGREES, BUT IF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE THESE SPOTS MAY DROP LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST INTO THE 50S. OTHERWISE, HAVE KNOCKED LOWS EVERYWHERE DOWN
BY A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEAR 60. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
DOWN TO OUR AREA BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NE COAST. REGARDLESS, THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL BRING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
ONCE MORE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
OUR NORTH BUT TOO FAR AWAY, PWATS ~1-1.5" SUPPORTING POPS PRIMARILY
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY DAY TO DAY AND BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AS FRONT ONLY SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH, INLAND
TERMINALS WILL STAY DRY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER PAST
SUNSET DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LOCKS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS FOR FRIDAY. PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL VEER AND LIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BY TOMORROW WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED N TO NE
WHILE SPEEDS SETTLE TO 10KT. WIND WAVES OBVIOUSLY QUITE SMALL AND A
13 SEC E SWELL WILL CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH
A NE SURGE OF STRONGER 10-15 KT WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. E TO NE FLOW ~10 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD UNTIL SATURDAY WHERE WINDS
WILL INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AND LAGGING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVEHEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 1-3 FT WITH THE REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
ERIN LEAVING OUR WATERS BY THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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